With 6 planned triples only, will that be enough for Michelle to win?

[Guesswho]

At the press conference after getting the nod from the monitoring committee, Michelle told one reporter that she was planning six triples in her long program in Turin, possibly upgrading one combo to a triple-triple. I have no doubt that Michelle's footwork, spins, and spirals (actually her leg is even higher now, did anyone notice?) will be awesome, but I'm worried in the jump department, she may be behind others who probably will attempt seven triples and possibly a couple of triple-triple combos. However, if Michelle throws in a magnificent triple-triple together with a 3-2-2 late in the program to max out the marks, combining with her superb artistry, she'll be a gold medal contender certainly. Especially if other ladies succumb to the Olympic pressure. Perhaps sticking to six triples is a good strategy...

What say you?

[gatzbee]

6 triples. if she has all her levels up there then 6 triples can be competitive. i dunno really. the only person whom i believe can get away with 6 triples easily is irina b/c most of her levels are very high and her PCS are always boosted. at this point i'd just be happy if mk did whatever she felt capable of doing.

[Cha7]

6 triples can really get by Slutskaya, especially if her artistry and footwork are really raised to the max.

It's funny, because these Olympics games may be the last for both Kwan and Slutskaya. And since both have yet to bring home OG, then these game are going to be really tough.

[honey827]

Yes six triples can be enough if she does them all cleanly and manages to get Positive GOE on all of them. It seems that she is going to be repeating the triple lutzes and triple flips which is harder than what Irina is doing which seems to be repeating the triple flips and triple loops if she does a triple triple. The only way Michelle would get in trouble is if Irina changes her triple loop for another triple lutz and manages to do a triple triple with the loop and skate the rest of her program clean. Then Michelle would have to also land a triple triple to match her such as a triple toe/triple loop or triple sal /triple loop . Unless Michelle is feeling really confident with the triple triple I would suggest she just stick with the six triple game plan . If she had been successful with either triple triple combinations previously I would say go for it but with the injuries and not competing I think it is her best bet. Michelle's jump plan of six triples is smart the only thing is the execution of said jump plan and making sure everything else is at a high level and she will certainly challenge for the podium.

[calculusfan]

If Michelle does 6 triples with a 3-3, that leaves her another jumping pass that she can use for another 2A. Even though it hurts her - she has a better shot of that than a 3L and can at least get close to the amount of points of another triple.

[Kabooke]

Things can change between now and the competition as
Michelle has already said she has work to do, so nothing
is set in stone.

As of now she has six triples planned and yes that
is enough to win.

How many clean seven triple performances have
we've seen lately. Not many that's for sure.


IMO, for anyone worried over this, this to
me reminds me of 00'-01' worlds were people
openly said Michelle couldn't outjump Irina and
she'd definitely win.

As has been said, it's not always the most difficult program planned
that wins but who stays on their feet and executes the best.
Michelle did that both times those years and came out with a
result against popular opinion.

[pluto3658]

The Olympics Ladies LP will come down to the wire just like it did in SLC. Whoever does the best improvising (smart moves/calulated) will win.

[probativev]

I wondered about the same question too. My guess (and this is pure speculations on my part) is that she might try to tack the 3loop onto another triple as a combo (remember how last year she'd been practicing combo jumps with 3loops because it seems like she can land it with better success rate than with solo 3 loop). And if it works, she can get full 7 triples into her program. If not, then it gets down graded to a 2 loop but she'll get credit for that, and does 6 triples, meeting the expectation she set for the public.

[pianohabebi]

... I have no doubt that Michelle's footwork, spins, and spirals (actually her leg is even higher now, did anyone notice?) ....


Yup, I noticed that at Marshall's. I'm very impressed especially since her hip was still bothering her.

[fanforlife]

I agree with Alexa. The most likely place to try to tack the loop is the opening triple salchow, she's done it before, if only in practice 5 years ago. Otherwise, it's trying the triple toe-triple toe later, and she's been able to do that before in competition, though not lately. (I somehow doubt this one, because she wants the two triple flips and triple lutzes). If she's not comfortable with either, it won't happen and she'll have the 6 triples she planned. She might possibly have double toes or loops on those two jumps to maximize her points, whichever she can accomplish, unless she can't attempt any more combos because she's done the triple lutz-double toe and the triple flip double toe double toe already.

With attention to the rest of her program, ice coverage, speed, length of spirals, spin positions, she certainly has enough for the gold. I'm not counting her out at all. People were ready to count her out, annointing Sasha Cohen the new US Champ for the last two years running, esp 2005 and look what Michelle stepped up to the plate with.

[Paula]

I think that it's hard to say wheter it will be enought. It might be enought for a medal with a strong presentation and her grace. But we have to remember that at this point she hasn't got a loop jump and bove Irina and sasha have all kind of triples in their programms. I don't think that 3x3 is nessesary for Michelle maybe some 3x2x2 will be enought. Irina didn't have 3x3 at Europeans, she also had mistake on a Flip. Of course I think that she will skate better at the Olympics and for sure when she is really on she can do even two 3x3 in performance. I also think that Sasha won't go for 3x3 in combination only in a segwence(?) 3T and 3S. I don't think that she will have more than six triples. So they can compite with each other Sasha and Michelle. They have so wonderfull presentation and choreography, much better than Irina. But it's sport and Irina has such high jumps, great spins and speed across the ice. I think that under this new system she is just a slide favourite. But everything can happened and this is a chance for two Americans.

[poster4591]

I am sure that the committee that was assigned to monitor her and decide whether she is good to go for the Olympics also determined whether her progrmas were enought to contend for a gold medal... She said in her press conference that she had a lot to think about and I am sure a lot of that has to do with her jump selection, There is still time for her to make slight changes to maximize her tech points...

[attyfan]

IMO, if Michelle needs a 3/3 to bulk up the PCS scores, she could do something with a triple toe on the end, which I understand is is easier on the hips than something with a triple loop on the end. I think things like skate order will be critical -- if it looks like the Oly ladies FS is something like the ladies event at Nats, then Michelle won't try one.

[adri]

I hope she doesn't push too hard and get injured again.

[kwanluv]

With 6 planned triples only, will that be enough for Michelle to win?Absolutely. There have only been very few 7 triple performances this season from the top ladies. It seems many of the top ladies are going for 7 triples with either a 3/3 or 3/3 sequence planned, but their execution of that plan has more often than not failed....so IMO Michelle's fine.

2x
3s
3f
3z/2t
3t/2t
3f/2t/2t
3z

The above was Michelle's planned content at the test skate.

Right now, it's unclear where she's going to throw in the 3/3 she mentioned (or what it will be). If she does do a 3/3, it could clear a jumping pass for another 2/axel. In fact, if Michelle does 6 triples with a 3/3 and two 2/axels and executes it well, she'll score pretty darn high because of +GOE and repeating both the lutz and flip. At this point I highly doubt she'll be doing the 3/loop either solo or as part of a 3/3 combo. It's clear that jump causes her problems and discomfort.

Irina has done 6 triples all season except at COC, where she did 7. I suspect she won't attempt the 3/3/2 unless she feels it's needed. Sasha has 7 triples planned with a 3/3 sequence, but we all know what her track record is on clean long programs. All the other top ladies (Fumie, Shizuka, Miki, Elena, Carolina, Kimmie, etc...) are consistently inconsistent, so there you go....so in effect, I’m not worried if Michelle skates clean. :)

[neneth]

That is why I never doubt Michelle have a shot.With the advice USFSA officail.WOW!!Can't wait to see her program.:angel

[Guesswho]

Actually, is 3-3 worth more than a 3-2-2 under COP? If so, perhaps Michelle should consider doing at least one. If my memory serves me right, hasn't she been practising a 3sal-3loop in warm-up at several made-for-TV events? I think Dick mentioned that. If not, Michelle may want to do two 3-2-2, assuming it's easier than 3-3. My worry is that Irina may do a couple of 3-3-2and thus put herself way ahead of Michelle. Sasha also has at least one 3-2-2, correct?

It seems every Olympics is different - in 1998, playing safe didn't help Michelle; but in 2002, she just had to skate clean and she would have won which meant a less ambitious program might have done the trick.

It's hard to predict what this year will be like. But I know the Kween will do the right thing as I have faith in her.

Not to mention this is the time for her to complete her Olympic medal collection.

[sunnybunny]

I agree with the poster that said skate order may be a big part of that decision. I would guess she will definitely be practicing a 3/3 and will make a decision based on where she is after the SP and where she is in the skate order. BTW, will the top 3 skate last as in US Nats????

I kinda doubt she will be in 1st after the SP unless Irina & Sasha fall apart. If she is very far from them in points, she may HAVE to go for it on the 3/3 in the LP to make up the lost ground. If she is close or in the lead, I think there is a definite chance she could win with only 6.

[probativev]

If she does do a 3/3, it could clear a jumping pass for another 2/axel. In fact, if Michelle does 6 triples with a 3/3 and two 2/axels and executes it well, she'll score pretty darn high because of +GOE and repeating both the lutz and flip.

I'm confused by this. I thought if she does 6 triples with a 3/3, she will clear another jumping pass for a 7th triple plus two 2axels. Take a look at your jump layout and do the count. She can do 6 triples now even without a 3/3. But Michelle has said in the press conference that she plans on trying a 3/3. So the 7th triple must be tagged on somewhere, or she will eliminate one of the triple jumps currently in the planned jumps you stated, which is also the one reported by the pool reporters.

So I'm still guessing that Michelle will go for a 7th if she can tag the loop somewhere, whether in combo or as a single. I'm still guessing as a combo, because a failed loop or a doubled or popped loop would be clearly a mistake in the program, whereas an attempted 3loop as a combo being downgraded is not necessarily a "mistake" in the eyes of the judges and viewers, just a downgrade.

[pianohabebi]

Actually, is 3-3 worth more than a 3-2-2 under COP? If so, perhaps Michelle should consider doing at least one. If my memory serves me right, hasn't she been practising a 3sal-3loop in warm-up at several made-for-TV events? I think Dick mentioned that. If not, Michelle may want to do two 3-2-2, assuming it's easier than 3-3. My worry is that Irina may do a couple of 3-3-2and thus put herself way ahead of Michelle. Sasha also has at least one 3-2-2, correct?


Actually it now depends...Certain 3/2/2 combinations are worth more than certain 3/3 combos and some 3/3 combos are worth more than some 3/2/2. Michelle's planned 3/2/2 is happening after the 2 min mark which will get a 10% bonus. Irina only has done a 3/3/2 once this season and it was at the Cup of Russia. The rest of the season she has done a 3/2/2 and it is in the beginning minute or so of her program; there are NO other 3 jump combos in her program, only one three jump combo is allowed (if Paul Wylie was telling the truth). From what I know Sasha does not have a 3/2/2, she has a 3/3 sequence planed which doesn't recieve as high as a score as a 3/2/2 (from what I understand). However, she is doing it after the 2min mark probably to gain some points.

Hope this is relatively accurate and clears up a few things.

[kwanluv]

I'm confused by this. I thought if she does 6 triples with a 3/3, she will clear another jumping pass for a 7th triple plus two 2axels. Take a look at your jump layout and do the count. She can do 6 triples now even without a 3/3. But Michelle has said in the press conference that she plans on trying a 3/3. So the 7th triple must be tagged on somewhere, or she will eliminate one of the triple jumps currently in the planned jumps you stated, which is also the one reported by the pool reporters.Alexa, Michelle will very likely not do a 3/loop, so regardless if she does a 3/3 or not, the max triples she'll still have is 6. If she does the 3/3, it will clear the way for a second 2/axel.

[catchfoot]

It's possible...but it worries me because the 3 loop is worth 5 points!!!!

[3Flutz3Lip]

The only 3/3 that I can see MK landing w/ certainty is the 3toe/3toe.

The other could be the 3sal/3toe, but we haven’t seen her landing that one yet.

I hope we wont see the 3loop, because that could hurt her hips more, I think.

[kwanluv]

In Michelle's case, she needs a lot of speed going into the 3/3 for her to do it, so the only combinations I could see her doing are obviously the 3t/3t...but she is planning on two lutzes and two flips...so that nixes that possibility.

So what's left that she could do?

3s/3t or 3f/3t.

She has a lot of speed going in to and out of both those jumps, so I could see her throw a 3/t on the end.

[Nsidedge]

WOW! You all have some good points.

Unfortunatley, it seems to me that the jumps have been a deciding factor in the past Olympics, especially when Tara won gold. I'm no expert tho', just a fan who thinks that the judges put a lot more emphasis on the technical part of the program, than they do the artistic part. Michelle has skated beautifully, landed her jumps clean (to my untrained eye atleast), and still did not get the gold. What do I know tho'. I guess I really don't understand the point system.

To me, figure skating should be about the artistry, balance, spinning, figures, and jumps. But it looks like there is so much more pressure to do more jumps, more rotations, and more triple/triple combos. I don't hear as much about the spirals, spins, and footwork. Am I mistaken, or are the jumps scored much higher than anything else?

I would appreciate some feedback.
Thanks!

[cosmicstarr]

I think a 6-triple program is the most we can realistically expect from Michelle at this point because 1) she may not have a triple-triple consistent enough to put in and 2) I don't think she is doing the triple loop anymore. That said, I think she can remain competitive jump wise with 6 triples. She's repeating the harder ones: lutz and flip.

Also, a lot will depend on which triples and combinations are performed after the 2 minute mark. I have a feeling her program is back-end loaded, which is a good thing under COP. If all her combinations are after the half-way point, she should be in contention jump-wise.

Here's hoping she gets the PCS scores from the judges that she deserves. This will make a big difference.

[Disciple of KWAN]

Leave it out michelle!

1. the loop is always underrotated! at best, it has a rounded edge. a tech controller may downgrade that move.

2. the 2nd flip was put in place to replace the loop! good move!!! it is much prettier and very often fully rotated!

3. why risk a 7 tripe program! just do a 6 one. irina only got credit for 6 triples at last year worlds! a seven triple program is too much pressure on her body! especially after these injuries. i mean a healthy kwan had trouble witht he 3-3, what makes you think an "ailing" kwan will not! waste of precious time in my opinion.

4. if she just concentrates on doing her complete long with high speed and hard spins, footwork, and spirals, she will be ok for olympics.

putting too much emphasis on one combination is what hurt her in the last olympics! she lost her focus a bit and rushed into the 3 flip! she did however get her focus back and nailed the rest of the program!

[probativev]

Well, it's always a strategy game. If Michelle draws to skate after Irina and Sasha, she can decide whether or not to take certain risks based on how they did. If she draws to skate before them, then she might decide to go for broke and lay down the gauntlet to unnerve them. It's really hard to tell until the moment arrives. Best is to be prepared to the max and the tilt and then see how things go.

[adri]

If the sal is an edge jump, where is she going to get the speed to land the loop if she goes for a 3sal/3 loop?

[Vinthekwanfan]

Originally posted by pianohabebi:
"From what I know Sasha does not have a 3/2/2, she has a 3/3 sequence planed which doesn't recieve as high as a score as a 3/2/2 (from what I understand). However, she is doing it after the 2min mark probably to gain some points."

Correction: if you've watched Sasha since Campbells, and most recently at US Nationals, her first jump element is a 3lutz/2toe/2loop, her most difficult combo. Additionally, her 3toe/steps/3salchow sequence is AFTER the 2-minute mark. If you look at it, jumpwise with 7 triples, and barring any complications such as another injury (PRAY TO GOD, same as for Michelle) or illness (she seems to be very vulnerable to the common cold, as evident in her frequently blowing her nose), compared to Irina's and other ladies' 6 (unless Irina upgrades to a combo with a 3loop, and Shizuka's planned 3/3 are fully credited), then Sasha is pretty competitive vs. Irina SO
LONG AS SHE STAYS ON ONE FOOT and does not step out of/underrotate her jump sequence, a poor habit since 05 Worlds. Most of Sasha's spins (probably except her sit spin) and her spiral sequence are level 4's, and her added transitions and other MITF will likely boost her PCS.

In a weird way, one can expect Irina to step out of her second triple flip and Sasha to bungle her jump sequence, so if this happens at the Olympic LP phase [in a highly pressurized atmosphere], they are pretty much on the same level playing field UNLESS judges reward Irina's underwhelming sense of artistry with inflated PCS [which not unexpectedly have decreased since her first GP competition). Go figure.

As for Michelle, we only have to wait as we have not seen her perform without the benefit of being behind curtain walls. I love and cheer for Michelle, but what I'm afraid of is the same level of confidence she showed prior to SLC and prior to 05 Moscow Worlds (where I think she was unexpectedly complacent prior to the QR). The media believes Michelle may have put herself in a bind if she's declared she believes she's competitive enough to vye for Olympic gold and she ends up short once again. Wouldn't it be a great Olympic story if she defies the naysayers (which I confess to being one PARTIALLY considering she doesn't have much training time) and wins the LP and the OGM?

[kwanluv]

If the sal is an edge jump, where is she going to get the speed to land the loop if she goes for a 3sal/3 loop?She has lots of speed coming out of her 3/sal...for a 3/toe...not a 3/loop.

Again, there's a very, very small chance that we'll see a 3/loop from Michelle.

[glissičre]

It can be easily said that Michelle fit well with the old 6.0 system (especially in comparison to COP), but even under the system in which she excelled, she did not have the best record when it came to defeating Irina. -How is she going to fair now with a similar situation and a more demanding system? Taking all that into consideration, 6 triples is not going to be enough. Michelle needs to go all out, attempt the hardest tech she can possibly preceive herself doing and not hold back. She played it safe before, I think she learned her lesson, what does she have to lose anyway? -That being said, Irina has learned her lesson as well, she'll bring out the 3/3/2 she did at COR.

[Pattern99]

And no matter how much we theorize, when it comes down to it, the Olympics are a different ballgame for all the skaters. It's once every 4 years, and the outcome is almost NEVER what we've anticipated! The thing I try to remind myself is these skaters do indeed have these jump arsenals, spins, footwork, etc., but the medium is ice, and you never know what is going to happen on the night. Look at SLC, for example! We don't know who is going to catch a blade in a rut, trip themselves up, or what. Everything is done on split-second timing, and there are no guarantees.

Michelle has as much chance as any of the other contenders. I just don't think the fact that she hasn't competed much the last couple of years matters to any great extent. All she's missed are a couple of GP events, and I don't imagine every judge on the circuit has seen ALL the skaters the past couple of seasons. I'm sure there are judges who haven't seen Irina or Sasha perform in competition because they haven't been on the judging panels at those events. I think her past record will help. They know what to expect from her. If she delivers and has good practices (which the judges attend), that will stand her in good stead. She's not the only person to debut a program at a major competition. Was it Plushy who debuted his long program at SLC? It didn't hurt him - what did hurt him was the fall in the short program.

Okay, Irina has x number of jump combinations, x number of spins and so on ON PAPER. So does Sasha, so does Shizuka, etc., etc. But this is the Olympics and they've got to transfer those elements from paper to the ice. Okay, Irina's been amazing since Worlds, but Olympic ice is a great leveller.

[kwanluv]

Well said. :) And so true...lol

[michelle2006]

So what's left that she could do?

3s/3t or 3f/3t.



Good point Kwanluv- And I tend to lean towards the 3s/3toe...

[probativev]

True Pattern. Strange things happen at the Olympics, and not just in FS. I still remember that guy in short track speeding skating who struck gold only because he was so behind that he wasn't caught in the domino of skaters who all fell. Some years ago when Alberto Tomba in HIS last shot--and then a old dark/warhorse actually won with a so-so performance when, unbelievably, the top contenders one by one made mistakes after mistakes and left him with the gold. Even Tomba himself couldn't believe it. And in singles skating, since the 90s the favorites had a 50/50 chance of winnng gold. Midori was the overwhelming favorite and lost to Kristi. No one would have guessed that Alexei Urmanov would take home the gold...Kurt Browning was supposed to take that one. One can argue that Kulik was a OGM contender but come on, who didn't think that Elvis Stojko was poised to take gold, with Eldrege being the next up winner if Stojko didn't win? The favored to win singles skaters who did actually take the OMG: Petrenko, Baiul, and Yagudin (and all had equally favored challengers in Browning, Kerrigan and Plushenko). The runner-up favorites who won: Kristi and Tara. The definite long-shot/non favorites who won: Urmanov, Kulik, Hughes.

That's 3 vs. 3 in odds of a favorite contender winning vs. long-shot/non favroite. Going by this statistic, Irina has a 3 in 8 chances of winning, as does Michelle (for those who thinks she's a long shot), and Sasha the runner-up favorite with 2 in 8 chances of winning.

Alright so this is screwy way of counting the stats but if you look at the big picture, the favorite had won in 3 out of 8 times at the Olympics. So the point is: strange things happen at the Olympics, so hey, one can even count Michelle out, but don't count on the favorite to take home the gold. If history tells us anything, the only thing we can count on is that the OMG favorites )and even runner-up favorites) ala Ito, Stojko, Browning, Eldrege, Michelle, Plushenko--all solid reliable comeptitors-- proved a tendency to self-destruct by wiping out when it comes to the Olympics.

We may in the end count in a blessing that Michelle is not a favorite this time around. The media pressure will be no less, but she is for once not the favorite going in, and you can argue statistics favored that she will be less likely to self-destruct this time around.

[adri]

Michelle's loop has always been shaky, alone and in combination.

She should go for the 3 toe/3 toe or stick with the original plan.

[Guesswho]

I have a feeling that Michelle is done with the 3toe-3toe and strives to upgrade that to a 3sal-3toe or 3flip-3toe. She executed a 3-2-2 beautifully in Moscow last year, if she can throw in another 3-3 this time around, whatever it may be, she has a good chance of challenging for the gold.

I do hope we'll see in Turin a much calmer Michelle who will skate like she has nothing to lose...

[Dream Again]

It's possible...but it worries me because the 3 loop is worth 5 points!!!!

A 2Axel/2toe after the 2-minute mark is worth 5.06 points. So you see, Michelle doesn't necessarily NEED to do a 3loop to get that point value.

[neneth]

It that the case who said Michelle don't have the technic.Somon Cowell:lol :lol

[BrazilSkates]

Well, after watching Michelleīs short program and reading the articles on her test I think we have two options here for the long:

Realistic option:
Jumpwise:
2 axel - out of the blue like in bolero - 3,3 + GOE
3 sal/2loop - 6,0
3 flip - out of steps like in the short and bolero - 6,0 + GOE
3 lutz/2 toe - 7,3
* 3 flip/2toe/2lo - after two minutes - 8,58
* 3 lutz - 7,15
* 3 toe - out of steps - 4,4 + GOE
Spins and steps:
FCSp4 - flying cammel level 4 - 3,0
LSp3 - Layback level 3 - 1,8
Cosp3 - comb spin level 3 - 2,5
CCosp4 - 3,5
Spst4 - Spiral level 4 - 3,4
SlSt3 - straight line step 3 - 3,1
TOTAL (Base Value): 60,03 - Thatīs huge with 6 triples! and I am not even counting the GOEs... I think thatīs something she can do already. Doing a triple loop in combo with the Sal woul raise that up in 4 points, but I donīt think that would be a smart Idea since she can underrotate It and get downgraded and get -GOEs as well.


fantastic option:
Jumpwise:
2 axel - out of the blue like in bolero - 3,3 + GOE
3 sal/3loop - 9,5
3 flip - out of steps like in the short and bolero - 6,0 + GOE
3 lutz/2 toe - 7,3
* 3 flip/2toe/2lo - after two minutes - 8,58
* 3 lutz - 7,15
* 3 toe - out of steps - 4,4 + GOE
Spins and steps:
FCSp4 - flying cammel level 4 - 3,0
LSp4 - Layback level 3 - 2,5
Cosp4 - comb spin level 3 - 3,0
CCosp4 - 3,5
Spst4 - Spiral level 4 - 3,4
SlSt3 - straight line step 3 - 3,1
TOTAL (base value): 64,73 - That would be awesome but really unlikely to happen!

[KwansPrayerWarrior]

A 2Axel/2toe after the 2-minute mark is worth 5.06 points. So you see, Michelle doesn't necessarily NEED to do a 3loop to get that point value.

*Whew* I'm glad that's true because after re-watching my old 2000 Nationals LP tape, she fell on that Triple Loop I think both in the short and long program. I want her to leave it out :(

[Dream Again]

A probable layout for Irina based on what we've seen from her this season:

3Lutz+2loop = 7.5
3Salchow+3loop+2toe = 10.8
3flip = 5.5
*3flip+2toe = 7.48
*3loop = 5.5
*3toe = 4.4
*2Axel = 3.63

Total for Slutskaya = 44.81

Layouts from Michelle without the 3loop that could beat Irina's layout:

2Axel = 3.3
3Salchow+3toe = 8.5
3flip = 5.5
*3Lutz+2loop = 8.25
*3flip+2toe+2loop = 9.13
*3Lutz = 6.6
*2Axel = 3.63

Total for Kwan = 44.91

-or-

2Axel = 3.3
3Salchow = 4.5
3flip = 5.5
*3Lutz+2toe = 8.03
*3flip+2toe+2loop = 9.13
*2Axel+3toe = 8.03
*3Lutz = 6.6

Total for Kwan = 45.09

-or-

2Axel = 3.3
2Axel+3toe = 7.3
3flip = 5.5
*3Lutz+2loop = 8.25
*3flip+2toe+2loop = 9.13
*3Salchow = 4.95
*3Lutz = 6.6

Total for Kwan = 45.03

-or-

2Axel = 3.3
3Salchow = 4.5
3flip+3toe = 9.5
*3Lutz+2toe+2loop = 9.68
*2Axel+2loop = 5.28
*3flip = 6.05
*3Lutz = 6.6

Total for Kwan = 44.91

-or-

2Axel = 3.3
2Axel = 3.3
3flip+3toe = 9.5
*3Lutz+2toe+2loop = 9.68
*3Salchow+2loop = 6.6
*3flip = 6.05
*3Lutz = 6.6

Total for Kwan = 45.03

[Guesswho]

Dream Again, thanks for the interesting in-depth analysis!

I'm sure our Kween knows what she has to do to win now...

[new_europe2006]

I think Michelle should leave out a layback spin and go for a different kind of spin to rack up more points. A level 4 layback spin isn't worth as much as a flying spin with no change of foot or one position with change of foot or a combination spin with no change of foot.

http://www.mkforum.net/forum/showpost.php?p=100819&postcount=4

[new_europe2006]

Absolutely. There have only been very few 7 triple performances this season from the top ladies. It seems many of the top ladies are going for 7 triples with either a 3/3 or 3/3 sequence planned, but their execution of that plan has more often than not failed....so IMO Michelle's fine.

2x
3s
3f
3z/2t
3t/2t
3f/2t/2t
3z

So her jump point total looks like this:

2x = 3.3 pts
3s = 4.5 pts
3f = 5.5 pts
* 3z/2t = 8.03 pts
* 3t/2t = 5.83 pts
* 3f/2t/2t = 8.91 pts
* 3z = 6.6 pts

Total = 42.67 pts

She's 2.14 behind Irina in jump points total as is but if Irina doesn't do her 3s/3l/2t combo and downgrades it to a 3s/2t/2l, then Michelle beats her by 1.36 pts.

Does anybody know Sasha's jump layout?

[kwancierto de aranjuez]

Lets say Michelle does this...

Short Program

2A = 3.3
3Lz + 2T = 6 + 1.3 = 7.3
3F = 5.5
Flying Camel Level 4 = 3.0
Straightline FW Level 4 = 3.4
Layback Level 3 = 1.8
Spiral Level 4 = 3.4
CCoSp Level 4 = 3.5

SP Base Points = 31.2

Long Program

2A = 3.3
3S = 4.5
3F = 5.5
CoSp4 = 3.0
FSSp4 = 3.0
SlSt4 = 3.4
---2 Minute Mark---
*3F+3T = (5.5 + 4)*1.1 = 10.45
*3Lz+2T+2Lp = (6 + 1.3 + 1.5)*1.1 = 9.68
*2A+2Lp (3T+2Lp if she misses 3/3) = (3.3 + 1.5)*1.1 = 5.28
LSp3 = 1.8 <---She may elect to do a solo Camel
*3Lz = 6.0*1.1 = 6.6
SpSt4 = 3.4
CCoSp4 = 3.5

LP Base Points = 63.41

[new_europe2006]

She should do a level 3 (2.7) or level 4 (3.0) one position with change of foot spin rather than a level 3 (1.8) or level 4 (2.4) layback spin since her layback spin isn't as good as a one position change foot spin would be for her. She should just play to her strengths in this new system and wait for the other skaters to make mistakes. Even a level 2 (2.1) one position spin with change of foot would gain her more points than a level 3 layback spin.

[Dream Again]

Does anybody know Sasha's jump layout?

As performed at Nationals, Sasha's layout is:

3flutz+2toe+2loop = 8.8
3flip = 5.5
3loop = 5.0
*3flip+2toe = 7.48
*3toe-steps-3Salchow sequence = 7.48
*2Axel = 3.63
*3Salchow = 4.95

Total for Cohen = 42.84

Ugh! I swear I can't tell the difference between Sasha's flips and "Lutzes."

[kwancierto de aranjuez]

She should do a level 3 (2.7) or level 4 (3.0) one position with change of foot spin rather than a level 3 (1.8) or level 4 (2.4) layback spin.

Per the CoP for Dummies by kwanboy, the CCSp3 or CSSp3 or CUSp3 is actually 2.1. If she did a FCCSp3 or FCSSp3 or FCUSp3 would be a 2.3. If she did them at Level 4 each, they would be worth 3.0 each. Weird that they end up being the same amount at level 4!

Short Program

2A = 3.3
3Lz + 2T = 6 + 1.3 = 7.3
3F = 5.5
Flying Camel Level 4 (FCSp4)= 3.0
Straightline FW Level 4 (SlSt4) = 3.4
Layback Level 3 (LSp3) = 1.8
Spiral Level 4 (SpSt4) = 3.4
Change Combo Sp Level 4 (CCoSp4) = 3.5

SP Base Points = 31.2

Long Program

2A = 3.3
3S = 4.5
3F = 5.5
CoSp4 = 3.0
FSSp4 = 3.0
SlSt4 = 3.4
---2 Minute Mark---
*3F+3T = (5.5 + 4)*1.1 = 10.45
*3Lz+2T+2Lp = (6 + 1.3 + 1.5)*1.1 = 9.68
*2A+2Lp (3T+2Lp if she misses 3/3) = (3.3 + 1.5)*1.1 = 5.28
CCSp3 = 2.3
*3Lz = 6.0*1.1 = 6.6
SpSt4 = 3.4
CCoSp4 = 3.5

LP Base Points = 63.91 <---Remember this is all without GOEs.Half of a point difference from doing a Layback Level 3- she missed the podium last year with less than half a point. Taking out the layback in the long may be a good strategy.

[new_europe2006]

As performed at Nationals, Sasha's layout is:

3flutz+2toe+2loop = 8.8
3flip = 5.5
3loop = 5.0
*3flutz+2toe = 8.03
*3toe-steps-3Salchow sequence = 7.48
*2Axel = 3.63
*3Salchow = 4.95

Total for Cohen = 43.39

Thanks. So Michelle is less than a point behind Sasha if Sasha skates clean (which I doubt will happen). Michelle is much more likely to skate clean than Sasha so Michelle could probably beat her in terms of jump points.

[new_europe2006]

Per the CoP for Dummies by kwanboy, the CCSp3 or CSSp3 or CUSp3 is actually 2.1. If she did a FCCSp3 or FCSSp3 or FCUSp3 would be a 2.3. If she did them at Level 4 each, they would be worth 3.0 each. Weird that they end up being the same amount at level 4!

Short Program

2A = 3.3
3Lz + 2T = 6 + 1.3 = 7.3
3F = 5.5
Flying Camel Level 4 (FCSp4)= 3.0
Straightline FW Level 4 (SlSt4) = 3.4
Layback Level 3 (LSp3) = 1.8
Spiral Level 4 (SpSt4) = 3.4
Change Combo Sp Level 4 (CCoSp4) = 3.5

SP Base Points = 31.2

Long Program

2A = 3.3
3S = 4.5
3F = 5.5
CoSp4 = 3.0
FSSp4 = 3.0
SlSt4 = 3.4
---2 Minute Mark---
*3F+3T = (5.5 + 4)*1.1 = 10.45
*3Lz+2T+2Lp = (6 + 1.3 + 1.5)*1.1 = 9.68
*2A+2Lp (3T+2Lp if she misses 3/3) = (3.3 + 1.5)*1.1 = 5.28
CCSp3 = 2.3
*3Lz = 6.0*1.1 = 6.6
SpSt4 = 3.4
CCoSp4 = 3.5

LP Base Points = 63.91 <---Remember this is all without GOEs.Half of a point difference from doing a Layback Level 3- she missed the podium last year with less than half a point. Taking out the layback in the long may be a good strategy.

It's only an increase of 0.3 over the layback spin but she's more likely to get higher GOEs on CCSp3 than LSp3. But if she has CCSp4 = 3.0, that's higher than LSp4 = 2.4. I think she should do CUSp4 since it would be worth more than LSp4.

[bronxgirl]

Ugh! I swear I can't tell the difference between Sasha's flips and "Lutzes."

That's why we all call them Flutzes!:lol

[Dream Again]

Thanks. So Michelle is less than a point behind Sasha if Sasha skates clean (which I doubt will happen). Michelle is much more likely to skate clean than Sasha so Michelle could probably beat her in terms of jump points.

new_europe2006, please see where I edited my first post. Sasha actually does 2 flips rather than 2 Lutzes, although if you want to be technical about it, she's actually doing 3 flips due to her flutzing.

As performed at Nationals, Sasha's layout is:

3flutz+2toe+2loop = 8.8
3flip = 5.5
3loop = 5.0
*3flip+2toe = 7.48
*3toe-steps-3Salchow sequence = 7.48
*2Axel = 3.63
*3Salchow = 4.95

Total for Cohen = 42.84

Ugh! I swear I can't tell the difference between Sasha's flips and "Lutzes."

[kwancierto de aranjuez]

That's still an increase in 0.5 by base value plus she'll probably get higher GOEs by doing CCSp3 rather than a level 3 layback spin.

I agree... Do away with the layback! If she did a Flying Solo Spin Level 3 she gets 2.3, only .1 point behing a layback Level 4. That would be a .7 point difference.

A Level 4 Layback is definitely not worth it in the long. Level 3 or Level 4 Flying Spin Baby!

[new_europe2006]

new_europe2006, please see where I edited my first post. Sasha actually does 2 flips rather than 2 Lutzes, although if you want to be technical about it, she's actually doing 3 flips due to her flutzing.

As performed at Nationals, Sasha's layout is:

3flutz+2toe+2loop = 8.8
3flip = 5.5
3loop = 5.0
*3flip+2toe = 7.48
*3toe-steps-3Salchow sequence = 7.48
*2Axel = 3.63
*3Salchow = 4.95

Total for Cohen = 42.84

Ugh! I swear I can't tell the difference between Sasha's flips and "Lutzes."

I posted before you edited. So Michelle is only .17 behind Sasha in terms of jumps but Sasha more than likely won't be clean in her LP in terms of jumps.

[new_europe2006]

I agree... Do away with the layback! If she did a Flying Solo Spin Level 3 she gets 2.3, only .1 point behing a layback Level 4. That would be a .7 point difference.

A Level 4 Layback is definitely not worth it in the long. Level 3 or Level 4 Flying Spin Baby!

I think her 4 spins should be:
FSp4 = 3.0
CUSp4 = 3.0
CoSp4 = 3.0
CCoSp4 = 3.5

That's higher than both Sasha and Irina for spins since both are doing laybacks in their LPs.

[Dream Again]

I posted before you edited. So Michelle is only .17 behind Sasha in terms of jumps but Sasha more than likely won't be clean in her LP in terms of jumps.

True, at Nationals, Sasha fell out of her 3toe with one hand down during the sequence and then stepped out of the 3Salchow landing too. She also missed this sequence in the Worlds LP when she fell out of the Salchow portion. It doesn't really make sense to me why she continues to try this sequence because she's not cleanly consistent on it and with it being a sequence, she's not getting the value from it that she needs to compete with Irina.

[new_europe2006]

With her current jump layout at 42.67 pts and if she does all level 4 spins, that's 12.5 pts, and level 4 footwork and spirals equal 6.8 pts. So that's 61.97 pts in terms of base value.

[new_europe2006]

True, at Nationals, Sasha fell out of her 3toe with one hand down during the sequence and then stepped out of the 3Salchow landing too. She also missed this sequence in the Worlds LP when she fell out of the Salchow portion. It doesn't really make sense to me why she continues to try this sequence because she's not cleanly consistent on it and with it being a sequence, she's not getting the value from it that she needs to compete with Irina.

Sasha's jump base value is at 42.84 if all of her spins are level 4, which would add 11.9 pts and then if she does level 4 spirals and footwork, that would add 6.8 pts, so her base value would be 61.54. She would be behind Michelle in terms of base value if Michelle does level 4 spins, footwork, and spirals plus she wouldn't get as high GOEs as Michelle would.

[kwancierto de aranjuez]

Does anyone else know the non-jump elements that people are doing and what levels they are.

Here's what Irina did at Euros
3Lz+2T
3F
2A
FCSp4
SpSt4
LSp4 <--- her strength and Michelle's weakest element
SlSt2 <--- her weakest element and Michelle's strength
CCoSp4

AaaaHHHH!!!!!!!! I can't believe that Elena Sokolova got a Spiral Step Level 4 with .43 GOE in Euros. WHAT THE HELL!?! Why are judges not deducting for poor positions!!!

In the LP, Irina had

3Lz+2Lo
3S+2T+2Lo
FCSp4
3F
LSp4
SpSt3
3F+2T*
3Lo*
3T*
CoSp3
2A*
SlSt2
CCoSp4

This program is very beatable if Michelle strategizes and places her elments in the optimum places ala Mao Asada!!!!

[new_europe2006]

Let's just say Irina does what she has planned jumpwise and upgrades all of her non-jumps elements to level 4:

3Lz/2Lo = 7.5 pts
3S/3l/2t = 10.8 pts
FCSp4 = 3.0 pts
3F = 5.5 pts
LSp4 = 2.4 pts
SpSt4 = 3.4 pts
3F/2T* = 7.48 pts
3Lo* = 5.5 pts
3T* = 4.0 pts
CoSp4 = 3.0 pts
2A* = 3.63 pts
SlSt4 = 3.4 pts
CCoSp4 = 3.5 pts

Total = 63.11 pts if she upgrades all of her non-elements to level 4 and if she does 7 triples. If she doesn't meet both of those standards, her base value is lower than Michelle's.

[kwancierto de aranjuez]

I think her 4 spins should be:
FSp4 = 3.0
CUSp4 = 3.0
CoSp4 = 3.0
CCoSp4 = 3.5

That's higher than both Sasha and Irina for spins since both are doing laybacks in their LPs.

How do you do a CUSp4? I think this is practically impossible. She should do a CCSp4 instead by doing this. Reverse Camel into Regular Camel, Change Edge, Change Foot Camel into Catchfoot (or allusion it). That's how you do a CCSp4.

The FSp4 should be a FSSp4. She would do a Flying Deathdrop Sit Spin, Change Edge, then go to either a cannonball or Crossfoot SitSpin.

For the CoSp4, she can incorporate the layback in there. She can Flying Camel Change Edge into Crossfoot into Sit into Y-Spin end with Scratch Spin

For the CCoSp4, she can Reverse Camel into regular Camel (why not? Irina does a dozen Beillman, why can't she do two reverse camel?) change edge, sit, Y-Spin, change foot, Sit, Layback Clasped Hand, end with forward Scratch.

[new_europe2006]

Does anyone else know the non-jump elements that people are doing and what levels they are.

Here's what Irina did at Euros
3Z/2T = 7.3 pts
3F = 5.5 pts
2A = 3.3 pts
FCSp4 = 3.0 pts
SpSt4 = 3.4 pts
LSp4 = 2.4 pts
SlSt2 = 2.3 pts
CCoSp4 = 3.5 pts

Her base value is 30.7 pts for the SP.


In the LP, Irina had

3Z/2L = 7.5 pts
3S/2T/2L = 7.3 pts
FCSp4 = 3.0 pts
3F = 5.5 pts
LSp4 = 2.4 pts
SpSt3 = 3.1 pts
3F/2T* = 7.7 pts
3L* = 5.5 pts
3T* = 4.4 pts
CoSp3 = 2.5 pts
2A* = 3.63 pts
SlSt2 = 2.3 pts
CCoSp4 = 3.5 pts

This program is very beatable if Michelle strategizes and places her elments in the optimum places ala Mao Asada!!!!

Irina's LP base value is 58.33 which is almost 3 points behind Michelle if Michelle has all of her non-jump elements at level 4.

[kwancierto de aranjuez]

Let's just say Irina does what she has planned jumpwise and upgrades all of her non-jumps elements to level 4:

3Lz/2Lo = 7.5 pts
3S/3l/2t = 10.8 pts
FCSp4 = 3.0 pts
3F = 5.5 pts
LSp4 = 2.4 pts
SpSt4 = 3.4 pts
3F/2T* = 7.48 pts
3Lo* = 5.5 pts
3T* = 4.0 pts
CoSp4 = 3.0 pts
2A* = 3.63 pts
SlSt4 = 3.4 pts
CCoSp4 = 3.5 pts

Total = 63.11 pts if she upgrades all of her non-elements to level 4 and if she does 7 triples. If she doesn't meet both of those standards, her base value is lower than Michelle's.
Michelle can beat this program even with just 6 triples if she stacks her Combos at the end of her program and has all Level 4. The program I prescribed is 6 triple, 1 Level 3 Spin and still beats Irinas.

The only way to beat Irina with 6 Triples is to do a Mao Asada back ended program. The only question is whether Michelle will be able to do it.

Oh, but my original had a 3/3 in it. What would it be without a 3/3? I don't wanna calculate...

[new_europe2006]

How do you do a CUSp4? I think this is practically impossible. She should do a CCSp4 instead by doing this. Reverse Camel into Regular Camel, Change Edge, Change Foot Camel into Catchfoot (or allusion it). That's how you do a CCSp4.

The FSp4 should be a FSSp4. She would do a Flying Deathdrop Sit Spin, Change Edge, then go to either a cannonball or Crossfoot SitSpin.

For the CoSp4, she can incorporate the layback in there. She can Flying Camel Change Edge into Crossfoot into Sit into Y-Spin end with Scratch Spin

For the CCoSp4, she can Reverse Camel into regular Camel (why not? Irina does a dozen Beillman, why can't she do two reverse camel?) change edge, sit, Y-Spin, change foot, Sit, Layback Clasped Hand, end with forward Scratch.

I was thinking maybe she could do a y-spin and another position for her CUSp4. An illusion doesn't count as a difficult position but Michelle could do a catchfoot since she's done one in the past.

[new_europe2006]

Michelle can beat this program even with just 6 triples if she stacks her Combos at the end of her program and has all Level 4. The program I prescribed is 6 triple, 1 Level 3 Spin and still beats Irinas.

The only way to beat Irina with 6 Triples is to do a Mao Asada back ended program. The only question is whether Michelle will be able to do it.

Oh, but my original had a 3/3 in it. What would it be without a 3/3? I don't wanna calculate...

Michelle doesn't need a 3/3 in order to beat Irina in terms of jump base value.

Here's what she could do:

2A = 3.3
3S = 4.5
3F = 5.5
*3Z/2T/2T = 9.46
*3F/2T = 7.48
*2A/3T = 8.03
*3Z = 6.6

Jump base = 44.87 pts

Non-jump elements = 19.3 pts

Total base value = 64.17 pts, which is a little over a point higher than Irina's if Irina upgrades.

[kwancierto de aranjuez]

I was thinking maybe she could do a y-spin and another position for her CUSp4. An illusion doesn't count as a difficult position but Michelle could do a catchfoot since she's done one in the past.

Hmmmm... So A CUSp4 could be

Reverse Attitude
Attitude Spin with Change of Edge (ala Bolero)
CrossFoot Spin
Change Foot
Y-Spin
Scratch SpinAha! That could work right?

[kwancierto de aranjuez]

Michelle doesn't need a 3/3 in order to beat Irina in terms of jump base value.

Here's what she could do:

2A = 3.3
3S = 4.5
3F = 5.5
*3Z/2T/2T = 9.46
*3F/2T = 7.48
*2A/3T = 8.03
*3Z = 6.6

Total = 44.87 pts

Change a couple of those 2T into 2Lo and she gets and an extra .44 points.

OMG! CoP is crazy with all this calculations!

[new_europe2006]

Hmmmm... So A CUSp4 could be

Reverse Attitude
Attitude Spin with Change of Edge (ala Bolero)
CrossFoot Spin
Change Foot
Y-Spin
Scratch SpinAha! That could work right?

Yes, and she's stronger with those spins than with a camel spin. :D

Let's just say she does an attitude spin with change of edge and a Y-Spin.

[new_europe2006]

Change a couple of those 2T into 2Lo and she gets and an extra .44 points.

OMG! CoP is crazy with all this calculations!

But the loop jump has bothered Michelle so that's why I didn't include it. But if she's fine, then she should add it.

[kwancierto de aranjuez]

Yes, and she's stronger with those spins than with a camel spin. :D

You know she really is much stronger at those spins, and more original that all the crazy pretzel Camels everyone's been doing? She's gotta change foot though for a CUSp4. I think she needs more than an attitude spin and Y-Spin for a Level 4 but I'm too lazy to look up Level 4 requirements. How many features does a Level 4 CUSp need.

I included the 2Loops because she did them in her warmups before her test skate.

Can you calculate this please... too lazy to do it. 6 Triples, no 3/3

FCSp4
2A
3F
3S
CUSp4
SlSt4
3F/2T
CoSp4
3Lz/2T
3T/2Lo/2Lo
3Lz
SpSt4
CCOSp4

With a 3/3, it would allow Michelle to do an extra 2A if she's gonna keep it at a 6 triple program.

[kwanatic712]

I think that planning six is the safe way to go. That way, if she needs to, she can tack a seventh triple onto one of her passes. I honestly think she could pull off a triple-lutz/triple-toe. She usually comes out of her lutz with a good amount of speed and flow.

I think her placement after the SP will be a factor. And also how confident she's feeling. I would think that if everyone else went out there trying for 3-3s and ended up with really sloppy looking programs, then Michelle should just stick to what she knows and make it look good. A technically superior program doesn't always win (remember back in 2001; Michelle skated cleanly and Peggy said Irina's program was "sloppy" b/c she tried so many jumps; and IMO I think that's what's going to happen at the Olympics this year). But I'm sure the ladies will be uping the ante on the jumps come game time. Hopefully Michelle will have enough time to survey the competition that way she'll know what she needs to do; however, at the same time, it would be great if she came out there and put together a really great program first, because then people would be trying to be better than her. And when people try to be better, they sometimes mess up.

But honestly, I think she should go for the triple-triple. We may have to face the sad and disturbing possibility that this may be Michelle's very last performance before she goes pro :bawl. If that is the case (and I kinda hope it is because I want her to retire on a high note; and I kinda hope not cause I'll miss seeing her skate :bawl) she needs to go out there and give it everything she's got. She can't hold anything back because she honestly doesn't have a reason to...this is it. It's time to cash in everything you got and put it all out there.

I say go for the triple-triple...go for two...she should push herself with every fiber of her being to turn in the most amazing performance ever...and something tells me she will be doing just that...:angel

[phoenixxx]

Call me a cynic, but a Kwan, even with 6 triples, will not beat a clean Irina, and all this point talk will be gibberish (what with the easily manipulated PCS & + GOE's). Too much politics, folks.

I hope I'm wrong.

[Guesswho]

This new scoring system is driving me nuts with all the calculations! Now I can understand why Michelle didn't fare well in the qualifying round at Worlds last year as her mind was probably boggled by all the numbers!! I certainly miss the old 6.0 system where judges gave out two marks based on their overall impression of the performance.

Back to Michelle. I agree that what Michelle will do in her long has a lot to do with her replacement after the short program. If she's in the top three, which I think she should if she skates clean, she may be more conversative. But if she's in fifth or sixth, she may have to skate like there's no tomorrow. Honestly, I don't know which scenario I prefer.

[kwancierto de aranjuez]

I think that planning six is the safe way to go. That way, if she needs to, she can tack a seventh triple onto one of her passes. I honestly think she could pull off a triple-lutz/triple-toe. She usually comes out of her lutz with a good amount of speed and flow.

I think her placement after the SP will be a factor...

But honestly, I think she should go for the triple-triple...

I say go for the triple-triple...go for two...
Michelle won't be able to do a 7 Triple Program without the Triple Loop.

The most she'll be able to do is to a 6 Triple Program with 2 Double Axels if she doesn't do the Triple Loop. If she wants to do the Flip and Lutz twice and do 6 triples, she'll have to leave out the Loop.


Call me a cynic, but a Kwan, even with 6 triples, will not beat a clean Irina, and all this point talk will be gibberish (what with the easily manipulated PCS & + GOE's). Too much politics, folks.

I hope I'm wrong.

You are right that the GOE and PCS are easily manipulated. I just hope "our" judges manipulate it towards "our" skaters too. But they'd never do that, would they? :|

[probativev]

You guys are all forgetting another very important factor--skate order!!!

This will be out of the skaters' control...but please please please let Michelle have a good draw....No drawing in the first or second group for the SP, and no skating first in the last group for the LP!

[3Flutz3Lip]

Michelle won't be able to do a 7 Triple Program without the Triple Loop.

The most she'll be able to do is to a 6 Triple Program with 2 Double Axels if she doesn't do the Triple Loop. If she wants to do the Flip and Lutz twice and do 6 triples, she'll have to leave out the Loop.

:|

Is it because u can only repeat 2 of the triple jumps. So if she repeats the Lutz, Flip, she can't repeat the toe?

[serendipity]

oh my, reading all these possible jump combinations and numbers is making me cross-eyed. lol. but thank you those who did all the analysis and arithmetic. reading those makes me dream the olympic moment when Michelle completes the set!!! it's totally within her reach even with "just" 6 triples. :) I cannot wait to see her SP again and the new LP and dresses. :)

[Vinthekwanfan]

Hi guys, just finished an 8-hr shift since 6AM, now using a computer from a hospital library. On topic, I distinctly remember MK falling on her 3 loop in the 2000 Nationals, and Dick and Peggy commentated that she's been having trouble with the jump in practice (I also remember she may have doubled it in the 2000 GPF SOTBS LP, but pls. correct me if I'm wrong). The last time her loop has been solid in a MAJOR compet. was the 2004 Worlds, and even then she popped another jump in the 2004 Worlds QR (popped flip, fell on 3 lutz from footwork).
And her Olympic history with the 3 loop is mixed: 2 triple loops, one in a relatively easy jump sequence at 1998 Nagano; tight/underrotated opening triple loop at 2002 SLC.

I doubt we will see a secure 3 loop from MK at Turino, as ever since she's changed the entrance into the jump with the half-loop series into back glide, back and hip pain got in the way and that's why it's been absent since last yr. I just got confused that she attempted a 2r/2r combo in her Olympic team qualifying test skate, and I actually thought this presaged a 3r/2r.
But as many agree, 2 lutzes, 2flips, 1 sal (another possibly shaky edge jump for her that relies on the rotator muscles of the hip) and 1 toe loop is a pretty strong jump repertoire, although if she does 2 salchows instead of 1, it would even be smarter.

[KwansPrayerWarrior]

You are right that the GOE and PCS are easily manipulated. I just hope "our" judges manipulate it towards "our" skaters too. But they'd never do that, would they? :|

Since it's so easy to do, and no one seems to be nailing the Russian judges for it, maybe our judges should do it too.....sometimes you have to fight fire with fire.....sometimes you have to wear the black hat and be the bad guy. But, in the end, I know Michelle wouldn't want to win that way :(

So it sux no matter HOW you look at it

[cchen24]

I doubt we will see a secure 3 loop from MK at Turino, as ever since she's changed the entrance into the jump with the half-loop series into back glide, back and hip pain got in the way and that's why it's been absent since last yr. I just got confused that she attempted a 2r/2r combo in her Olympic team qualifying test skate, and I actually thought this presaged a 3r/2r.
But as many agree, 2 lutzes, 2flips, 1 sal (another possibly shaky edge jump for her that relies on the rotator muscles of the hip) and 1 toe loop is a pretty strong jump repertoire, although if she does 2 salchows instead of 1, it would even be smarter.

With 2 lutzes and 2 flips, she cannot do 2 sals. You can only repeat two types of triples. If she does 2 lutzes, 2 flips and 2 sals, one of the six triple jumps will get no credit.

[me2shy]

With 2 lutzes and 2 flips, she cannot do 2 sals. You can only repeat two types of triples. If she does 2 lutzes, 2 flips and 2 sals, one of the six triple jumps will get no credit.

The one that is repeaded third will not be counted.

[jenaj]

You guys are all forgetting another very important factor--skate order!!!

This will be out of the skaters' control...but please please please let Michelle have a good draw....No drawing in the first or second group for the SP, and no skating first in the last group for the LP!

No, we can take skate order into consideration right now, because Irina always skates last.

[Dragonlady]

Skate order is a non-factor under CoP because the judges don't have to "hold" places for skaters to come which they did under 6.0. There have been numerous instances of skaters who were first to skate and won their event under CoP.

[3Flutz3Lip]

Even though skating order might not be that much of a factor anymore, it is still better not to go first in your group.
Judges can still pump up or down your PCS.

I could be wrong, but that's just my hunch.

[serendipity]

i feel michelle was "hold down" in worlds last yr. just my opinion, obvious nothing concrete to proof that. lol. :P

[AKsellout]

The last time her loop has been solid in a MAJOR compet. was the 2004 Worlds, and even then she popped another jump in the 2004 Worlds QR

Huh? She's landed the loop beautifully from 2001-2004 at Nats and Worlds. Okay, it was shaky at Nats '02 but that's only one instance.

[probativev]

Skate order is a non-factor under CoP because the judges don't have to "hold" places for skaters to come which they did under 6.0. There have been numerous instances of skaters who were first to skate and won their event under CoP.

Of course it still matters when it comes to strategies. If Michelle knows who bombed and who didn't do what, then she can take fewer risks with planned jumps. But of course that actually worked against her when Sarah actually landed 2 3/3s. I think Michelle would have won had she skated before Sarah in 2002.

Another thought, for all these talks, when it comes to the Olympics, the winner is usually the one who actually stays on his/her feet. I know that COP is supposed to change that, but I still think that the person who stays on her feet will come out the winner. It's a nerves game at the Olympics.

[new_europe2006]

You know she really is much stronger at those spins, and more original that all the crazy pretzel Camels everyone's been doing? She's gotta change foot though for a CUSp4. I think she needs more than an attitude spin and Y-Spin for a Level 4 but I'm too lazy to look up Level 4 requirements. How many features does a Level 4 CUSp need.

I included the 2Loops because she did them in her warmups before her test skate.

Can you calculate this please... too lazy to do it. 6 Triples, no 3/3

FCSp4
2A
3F
3S
CUSp4
SlSt4
3F/2T
CoSp4
3Lz/2T
3T/2Lo/2Lo
3Lz
SpSt4
CCOSp4

With a 3/3, it would allow Michelle to do an extra 2A if she's gonna keep it at a 6 triple program.

FCSp4 = 3.0 pts
2A = 3.3 pts
3F = 5.5 pts
3S = 4.5 pts
CUSp4 = 3.0 pts
SlSt4 = 3.4 pts
3F/2T* = 7.48 pts
CoSp4 = 3.0 pts
3Z/2T* = 8.03 pts
3T/2L/2L* = 7.7 pts
3Z* = 6.6 pts
SpSt4 = 3.4 pts
CCOSp4 = 3.5 pts

Base Value = 62.41 pts

Here are the features required for a CUSp4:

Spin in one position with change of foot:

1. 2 difficult variations, including change of foot (each foot counts separate for the same or different variation)
2. Backward entrance or variation of flying entrance (not regular flying camel)
3. Change of edge (on both feet counts twice)
4. Both directions immediately following each other
5. Balance in regards to the amount of revolutions in each variation and on both feet

Level 2 (2 features), Level 3 (3 features), Level 4 (4 features)

So she could do an attitude spin with change of edge, change foot into a Y-spin changing edge with the same number of revolutions on both feet.

[KwansPrayerWarrior]

Skate order is a non-factor under CoP because the judges don't have to "hold" places for skaters to come which they did under 6.0. There have been numerous instances of skaters who were first to skate and won their event under CoP.

I forgot about that....that's true now.....you can skate first and still win....if someone screws up, they lose the points....so it's all how you skate...

[Lunar]

Skate order is a non-factor under CoP because the judges don't have to "hold" places for skaters to come which they did under 6.0. There have been numerous instances of skaters who were first to skate and won their event under CoP.

In theory, yes. However, the judges are clearly holding back PCS for those who skate earlier. All you have to do is look at the protocols to see that earlier groups get lower scores in PCS regardless of their skate.

[marcelo777]

i feel michelle was "hold down" in worlds last yr. just my opinion, obvious nothing concrete to proof that. lol.

Well, actually I agree and disagree with you at the same time:
It was extremely important for Michelle to have an excellent debut in COP judging. However, that did not happened.

QR Bolero was IMO a very poor performance, however if you see her protocols you will see that some of the judges gave her 8s and even mid 8s for that performance, while others gave her 6s and 2 even gave her 5s. In that first competition she had PCS all over th place, some very very high and other ridicuously low. On the SP "magically" all of the sudden her PCS were on the same range of high 6's and low 7s (Wich IMO is such a travesty, since if Irina is getting high 8's then Michelle should get 11s!!!). On the LP it was the same as in the SP. I thougth her LP Bolero was WAAAAY much better than the QR Bolero, yet her PCS had no 8's except I think 2 on Skating Skills.
How do you can score 8.25 on coreography and then have 6 on that same component with the same program on a 2 day range?
I know how, I think all fo you do too....... major monkey businness

So as you can see some of the judges did support her, despite having her worst performance at worlds on the QR (with PCS on the mid 8's), but then I think the "found" a range that would look "ok" and they all sticked to it.

Marcelo

PD: Sorry for the huge parenthesis from the main topic, I just wanted to say this.. :angel

[new_europe2006]

Michelle should just go for what she knows she can handle. Whether it's 6 or 7 triples in her LP but she shouldn't go for a 3/3 since it isn't going to gain her that many points and she hasn't done one all season. Plus she can still be very competitive or even have higher base marks than Irina and Sasha.

[smkoepke]

Sasha's jump base value is at 42.84 if all of her spins are level 4, which would add 11.9 pts and then if she does level 4 spirals and footwork, that would add 6.8 pts, so her base value would be 61.54. She would be behind Michelle in terms of base value if Michelle does level 4 spins, footwork, and spirals plus she wouldn't get as high GOEs as Michelle would.

Sasha would get higher or equal GOE's on spins due to her speed (if it comes back) and her positions are beautiful as are MK's. She has more stretch in her spiral so will get GOE for that but MK has better edge quality, speed and ice coverage. MK clearly would get better GOE on the footwork. I just don't think it is a good idea to rely on the GOE situation to make our guess. I want MK's tech to be right on par with Irina/sasha/shizuka without her having to rely on falls from others and GOE points. I doubt she will have a triple triple and that is ok if she is clean with the jump layout reported from the test skate. Now she really does need to plan all level 4 spins/spiral/footwork, and it sounds like she is on that road. Should be a great event.

[new_europe2006]

Sasha would get higher or equal GOE's on spins due to her speed (if it comes back) and her positions are beautiful as are MK's. She has more stretch in her spiral so will get GOE for that but MK has better edge quality, speed and ice coverage. MK clearly would get better GOE on the footwork. I just don't think it is a good idea to rely on the GOE situation to make our guess. I want MK's tech to be right on par with Irina/sasha/shizuka without her having to rely on falls from others and GOE points. I doubt she will have a triple triple and that is ok if she is clean with the jump layout reported from the test skate. Now she really does need to plan all level 4 spins/spiral/footwork, and it sounds like she is on that road. Should be a great event.

But if Michelle does a CUSp4, that'll have a higher base value than Sasha's LSp4 and could even get a higher GOE b/c Sasha's biellmann is the worst biellmann I've ever seen in my life and she slows down dramatically on that spin. All Michelle needs is maybe to upgrade some of her jumps w/o a 3/3 and she'll beat Sasha and possibly Irina on base value. But it would be a good idea for Michelle to have the highest base value in the competition and it's very doable.

[new_europe2006]

Here are a couple of options for Michelle to do for jump layout in her LP with 6 triples and no 3/3:

2axel = 3.3 pts
3flip = 5.5 pts
3salchow = 4.5 pts
After 2 minute mark:
3lutz/2toe/2loop = 9.68 pts
3flip/2toe = 7.48 pts
3toe/2loop = 6.05 pts
3lutz = 6.6 pts

Total = 43.11 pts, which is higher than Sasha's jump base value but a little lower than Irina's.

Another with 7 triples and no 3/3:

3toe = 4.0 pts
3flip = 5.5 pts
3salchow = 4.5 pts
After 2 minute mark:
3lutz/2toe/2loop = 9.68 pts
3flip/2toe = 7.48 pts
3loop/2loop = 7.155 pts
3lutz = 6.6 pts

Total = 44.91 which is slighty higher than Irina's jump basemark even if Irina performs her 3/3.

[probativev]

The 2axel is the jump giving her most pain so I don't think a 2axel/triple combo is in the plan.

[BrazilSkates]

[/QUOTE] r. I just got confused that she attempted a 2r/2r combo in her Olympic team qualifying test skate, and I actually thought this presaged a 3r/2r.
[/QUOTE]

Some skaters do 2r/2r in the warm up to get the timing on rotations. It doesnīt mean she is planning a 3r/2r.

[new_europe2006]

The 2axel is the jump giving her most pain so I don't think a 2axel/triple combo is in the plan.

then maybe it can be a 3toe/2toe or 3toe/2loop combination.

[skatingfan5]

In theory, yes. However, the judges are clearly holding back PCS for those who skate earlier. All you have to do is look at the protocols to see that earlier groups get lower scores in PCS regardless of their skate.You are definitely right about that. If a skater isn't in the final group, his/her PCS marks are never as high as they would have been if they had skated later. And if they happen to make errors, it hurts their marks even more. Judges may be using computer input devices and the NJS, but old habits/patterns seem to be impossible to break. And don't get me started about the "theoretical" vs. "in practice" use of the PCS marks. Judges are NOT really using them to differentiate performance levels on the 5 different components -- those 5 marks almost never show much variance for any individual skater -- they are all linked in a narrow 0.3-0.4 range at the most.

[Divinelove]

Could she expect to win with only 6 triples? I think she secretly has 7 planned to surprise everyone.

[Guesswho]

Actually Michelle hasn't completed a 7-triple program since her long at 2001 Worlds in Vancouver. After Salt Lake City, she seemed to have tremendous success with only 6 triples in her performance. I highly doubt she would go for 7 triples and the truth is she may not even need to if she skates really well and maximizes all the points. But if other skaters fare extremely well, she may be pressured to attempt that, and I think she'll skate like a superwoman...

I just hope the Olympic ice is kind to our Kween this time around.

[lyrakwan]

is it just me, or does anyone else think michelle needs a 3 jump series to win. i think sasha and irina are doing that in their programs.

[TalyaJa]

It may be. When all is said and done, the person with the best skate will win. I caught part of the European championships and watched Irina skate. She did well. I hope every Olympian brings their 'A' game.

[machina111]

is it just me, or does anyone else think michelle needs a 3 jump series to win. i think sasha and irina are doing that in their programs.

She already has one of those planned...she landed one in her program @ the test skate.

[michelle2006]

Yes and it was quite nicely done from what I hear!


With 6 planned tripples only, will that be enough for Michelle to win?

Dear Skate Gods! With all she's ben through- heck yeah it'll be enough, if she can also comine those tripples with some incredible 25th "once in a life time perfromance", she's Good too go!

[Guesswho]

Yes, I hope Michelle can find that invincible zone on that night and silence all her critics once and for all...

[ExoticFlower213]

Kinda OT, but how much harder would it be for Michelle to turn a 3lutz/2-toe into a 3lutz/2loop?

[porkpuff]

For what it's worth, the last time a 6-triple Kwan LP was beaten was at 2002 Worlds (by Slutskaya). Even with mistakes, (like 1999 and 2001 Skate America) when Kwan completes 6 clean triples she has been beaten very few times -- the only times I can think of is 1999 Worlds and Nagano. You could throw in 2000 GPF in there too, except that the 6 triple LP she did was followed by a 5 triple one. Had Kwan landed the last 3z in 2004 Worlds she would have won that too (wasn't it 4 judges who put her in first even though she doubled her last lutz?)

Of course these were all scored according to the old system, but there's a very good chance that an error-free, 6 clean triple LP will land Kwan on the podium.

[Joanna]

WOW! You all have some good points.

Unfortunatley, it seems to me that the jumps have been a deciding factor in the past Olympics, especially when Tara won gold. I'm no expert tho', just a fan who thinks that the judges put a lot more emphasis on the technical part of the program, than they do the artistic part.

But they should though, because figure skating "is" a sport.

If artistry was the biggest factor, then it would just be a competition.

[cestlavie000000]

Figure skating is a sport and an art. Without the art it's like watching high jump. Not bad but not what I want to watch.

[kwancierto de aranjuez]

Another with 7 triples and no 3/3:

3toe = 4.0 pts
3flip = 5.5 pts
3salchow = 4.5 pts
After 2 minute mark:
3lutz/2toe/2loop = 9.68 pts
3flip/2toe = 7.48 pts
3loop/2loop = 7.155 pts
3lutz = 6.6 pts

Total = 44.91 which is slighty higher than Irina's jump basemark even if Irina performs her 3/3.
She can't do this program. She'll get a deduction for not doing a required axel jump.

[gatzbee]

saying skate order doesn't matter is silly. yes there have been those who have skated first and won but if u skate in the 2nd to last group vs. the last group i do believe things can make a difference. the judging system may be different, but its the SAME exact judges with 5 PCS components to manipulate now.

[new_europe2006]

She can't do this program. She'll get a deduction for not doing a required axel jump.

Oops. I guess she can take out the 3loop and put in a the 3toe/2loop combo and start with a 2axel.

[new_europe2006]

Kinda OT, but how much harder would it be for Michelle to turn a 3lutz/2-toe into a 3lutz/2loop?

If she did it before the 2 minute mark, it would only increase it by .2 points. If she did it after the 2 minute mark, it would increase by .22 marks but it might be a good move. It would be smart if she adds moves that may only give her slight increases in points but eventually it'll add up.

Even if Michelle does only 6 triples and no 3/3, she still has a shot to win.

[Guesswho]

I would think six clean triples (including a 3-3 and a 3-2-2) combining with Michelle's joy and magic may just do the trick. But if Irina skates a clean program, she may just get the nod from the judges who have been overmarking her in my opinion.

[MKalltheway]

saying skate order doesn't matter is silly. yes there have been those who have skated first and won but if u skate in the 2nd to last group vs. the last group i do believe things can make a difference. the judging system may be different, but its the SAME exact judges with 5 PCS components to manipulate now.

ita...they always leave room (whether it be consciously, or subconciously). and with NJS, points can even be more obscure as to who awarded what!

[kwancierto de aranjuez]

If she did it before the 2 minute mark, it would only increase it by .2 points. If she did it after the 2 minute mark, it would increase by .22 marks but it might be a good move.

3Lz/2Lo - not just .22 increase after but a .82 increase because the 3Lz would also have a .6 increase.

[new_europe2006]

3Lz/2Lo - not just .22 increase after but a .82 increase because the 3Lz would also have a .6 increase.

I was comparing a 3lutz/2toe to a 3lutz/2loop combination increase after the 2 minute mark to see how many more points she'd get for increasing the difficulty to a 2loop rather than a 2toe.

Sorry for the confusion.

[kwancierto de aranjuez]

ita...they always leave room (whether it be consciously, or subconciously). and with NJS, points can even be more obscure as to who awarded what!

Well, we know who awarded what...

judge #1 awarded these marks...

we just don't know who that judge is?

[mzheng]

Well, actually I agree and disagree with you at the same time:
It was extremely important for Michelle to have an excellent debut in COP judging. However, that did not happened.

QR Bolero was IMO a very poor performance, however if you see her protocols you will see that some of the judges gave her 8s and even mid 8s for that performance, while others gave her 6s and 2 even gave her 5s. In that first competition she had PCS all over th place, some very very high and other ridicuously low. On the SP "magically" all of the sudden her PCS were on the same range of high 6's and low 7s (Wich IMO is such a travesty, since if Irina is getting high 8's then Michelle should get 11s!!!). On the LP it was the same as in the SP. I thougth her LP Bolero was WAAAAY much better than the QR Bolero, yet her PCS had no 8's except I think 2 on Skating Skills.
How do you can score 8.25 on coreography and then have 6 on that same component with the same program on a 2 day range?
I know how, I think all fo you do too....... major monkey businness

So as you can see some of the judges did support her, despite having her worst performance at worlds on the QR (with PCS on the mid 8's), but then I think the "found" a range that would look "ok" and they all sticked to it.

Marcelo

This was a very interesting finding. Maybe after the QR, the judges getting together set a tone for her marks?

[new_europe2006]

Here's a 7 triple program Michelle could do that would have a higher basemark than Irina, Sasha, Shizuka, and all of the other ladies with a 3/3 sequence rather than a 3/3 combo:

2axel - 3.3 pts
FSSp4 - 3.0 pts
3flip - 5.5 pts
CoSp4 - 3.0pts
3loop - 5.0 pts
SpSt - 3.4 pts
After 2 minute mark -
3lutz/2toe/2loop - 9.68 pts
CCoSp4 - 3.5 pts
3flip/2toe - 7.48 pts
CUSp4 - 3.0 pts
3toe/1/2loop/3salchow = 9.14 pts
3lutz - 6.6 pts
SlSt4 - 3.4 pts

Base Value = 66.0 pts

[kwancierto de aranjuez]

Here's a 7 triple program Michelle could do that would have a higher basemark than Irina, Sasha, Shizuka, and all of the other ladies with a 3/3 sequence rather than a 3/3 combo:

2axel - 3.3 pts
FSSp4 - 3.0 pts
3flip - 5.5 pts
CoSp4 - 3.0pts
3loop - 5.0 pts
SpSt - 3.4 pts
After 2 minute mark -
3lutz/2toe/2loop - 9.68 pts
CCoSp4 - 3.5 pts
3flip/2toe - 7.48 pts
CUSp4 - 3.0 pts
3toe/1/2loop/3salchow = 9.14 pts
3lutz - 6.6 pts
SlSt4 - 3.4 pts

Base Value = 66.0 pts

This would require that MK up all the levels on her non-jump elements and her attempting the 3Loop which looks doubtful.

[Arch]

This was a very interesting finding. Maybe after the QR, the judges getting together set a tone for her marks?

Hmm... I wouldn't be surprised. Maybe they met and agreed that they wouldn't give Michelle lower than 7s, so that the cheating wouldn't be too obvious. On the other hand, they probably also agreed not to give her high 8s, so that their favorite Irina would be guaranteed the win regardless of what would happen.

[new_europe2006]

This would require that MK up all the levels on her non-jump elements and her attempting the 3Loop which looks doubtful.

I think that's pretty much what she has to do to get a higher base value than Irina. Maybe she can downgrade one of her spins (except for the CCoSp4) to a level 3 and even downgrade her footwork sequence to a level 3.

[MKalltheway]

I think MK will be just fine w/o the 3loop. It worked out relatively well last year. She can tack on the 2loop after any combo to compensate...which is what I think she'll do

[Guesswho]

After all the interesting discussion, I can't wait to see Michelle's long program!

Do you all think Michelle will do a 3lutz-2loop instead of the usual 3lutz-2toe in her short?

[new_europe2006]

I think MK will be just fine w/o the 3loop. It worked out relatively well last year. She can tack on the 2loop after any combo to compensate...which is what I think she'll do

I hope you're right.

[gatzbee]

On the LP it was the same as in the SP. I thougth her LP Bolero was WAAAAY much better than the QR Bolero, yet her PCS had no 8's except I think 2 on Skating Skills.
i agree for all the criticism of bolero, i actually liked the worlds LP performance the best out of all the bolero performances with the last and final version of choreo. she seemed to have more speed and attack. i def. saw some PCS that were all over the place with her. and then with irina, u see some judges awarded her 9s in the LP yet some others weren't nealry as generous. sure it was the skate of her life but 9s in PCS?