Michelle, Sasha

[inabauer]

Reading previous threads on this forum, a question occurred to me:

How can there be people on this board who believe Michelle can win the 2006 Olympics and yet not believe Sasha can skate a clean program?

Sasha seems to be making some gains on her consistency each sesaon; the typical response regarding Sasha is "I'll believe it when I see it", yet the same people believe Michelle will win the Olympics, when she has already missed the gold on 2 previous attempts.

[ScoobertDieu]

Many people believe Michelle will win because she has proven she's a winner over and over again, and her fans choose to believe she can win it. And don't forget, this is a Michelle Kwan forum so naturally most here believe she can win the gold. Sasha has a chance, of course, but she has proven to crack under pressure and has yet to prove she can skate consistently clean. It's not that hard to understand.

[MKGrace]

I think it's apples and oranges comparing them. Yes Michelle has ended up with silver and bronze medals, but she did skate clean programs in Nagano in the midst of all the pressure and expectations. Sasha hasn't done that yet in any major event. Michelle has stepped up and skated clean at major events (including 3 World championships).

I think they both have strong chances of winning gold in Torino--Michelle because of her experience and aristry, and Sasha because of her COP-friendly skating and artistry--but it's no surprise that many think Michelle has the better chance.

Edited: Thanks JunJohn for the correction.

[inabauer]

I'll believe it when I see it.

[MKGrace]

Believe what?

[JunJohn21]

Actually Michelle won the bronze in 2002.

[MKGrace]

won the bronze in 2002 I don't buy that. Of course it was a major accomplishment to medal in 2 consecutive Olympics, but Michelle was gunning for gold in SLC.

[GinnySmith]

Who here has said they don't believe Sasha can win?

Just looking at records and pressure, IMHO, Michelle has a better track record under pressure than Sasha, and that Sasha tends to crumble at the big events. I still believe MK can win the 2006 Olympics because:

--Michelle skated perfectly in her 1998 Olympic SP and LP and in my opinion and in the opinion of many got done in by skating order, not by the way she skated.

--Michelle has skated brilliantly in 3 out of 4 of her Olympic performances in 1998 and 2002.

--Michelle won 9 National Titles soundly defeating Sasha in 2000, 2002, 2003, 2004 and 2005.

--Michelle won 5 World Titles, 4 of the 5 included brilliant free skates, most notably in 2000

--Michelle won the 2000 World title when everyone counted her out and considered her unfocused with school and ability-wise, thought MK was over-the-hill. When only the most ardent MK fan believed she could win going into the free skate against what seemed like impossible odds: Irina won all season and had landed a difficult 3/3 once already, Michelle had not hit her 3 toe/toe since early in the season at Skate America, Michelle did not control her own desitiny and someone would have to place above Maria for Michelle to win, Michelle skated first so the judges had to leave room for marks, there were no North American Judges on the panel, Michelle had to land a 3/3 and be flawless to even have a chance to win. Michelle delivered the goods and did what she had to do, including nailing a 3/3 and was flawless and everything else fell into place.

--I have only seen Sasha skate a LP flawlessly once, and that was at the 2004 Marshall's Cheesefest with no pressure.

However, I do believe it totally possible that Sasha could be flawless one time in 2006 when it counts at the Olympics. Of course, the even better news for Sasha is that under CoP, she doesn't have to be flawless to win and CoP rewards spins and flexibility more than 6.0 so the new system is tailor made for her style of skating. She just needs to rack up the points and not worry about mistakes so the pressure to be perfect against Michelle that existed under 6.0 has evaporated.

Frankly, I think there is a good chance that Sasha could win, but there is even a better chance it will be Irina, if Irina's health holds out. Finally, I am not counting out Carolina Kostner either.

With her lack of exposure to CoP, Michelle is definitely going into the season as the under-dog and I believe her non-fans have already written her off and are counting her out. However, I also take into account that Michelle didn't do all that badly at the 2005 Worlds. Even with some mistakes in her free skate and a very shakey QR, she missed the podium only by fractions. IMHO, that is actually quite an accomplishment for never competing under CoP, so there is no way I will count Michelle out as a winner of the 2006 Olympics.

To sum up, there are many ladies who have the potential to take home the gold, Sasha included. However, IMHO, Michelle has a fighting chance, for all of the reasons I have stated previously in this post.

I believe in Michelle because she's proven to me many times she can win with the odds largely against her.

[kwanluv]

So well said Ginny!

http://instagiber.net/smiliesdotcom/contrib/corky/corkysm60.gif

[Krista]

Bravo Ginny !! :D :D :D :RB

[taytay165]

Ginny - :)

- tara

[Ice So]

I see the point about Michelle proving she can win with the odds against her, but I also believe that skaters have peaks in their careers and there comes a time when a downfall begins. That's why many turn professional when they reach a certain age and/or when they win the biggest acoomplishment in their career. It's just a natural process. This is just my opinion so it's worth what it is, but I think Michelle has already peaked and while I do think she's a threat and she can still win the big competitions, I don't think she has the same ability to turn things around as before. She's not the same skater she was a few years ago. Some things she got better at, other things are worse. The premises have changed and so has the standard, so much that for some people winning a bronze at Worlds or a 4 th place is a good results :eek Winning gold in Turin, though, is up to her old standards. But like I said, the premises are different.

I strongly disagree that she did well last season or in Dortmund... for a 5 time world champion a bronze medal is not good enough and neither it is a 4th (!) place. You can argue the placement doesn't matter as long as she skates well and "has fun"... sure, but that doesn't mean she did well LOL I think there is a tendency showing. Blame it on skating less, not risking because of fear of injury, blame it on the first competition under COP... but why are these causes? Why are they happening in first place? Don't you think they're already a *consequence* instead of a cause? We can believe and have faith in what we want, of course, but this is what I think. I don't think she has as many chances of gold next year in Turin and I don't think that not entering the season as favorite helps her any either.

We'll see what's gonna happen LOL

[JunJohn21]

Awesome post Ginny! :)

I don't buy that. Of course it was a major accomplishment to medal in 2 consecutive Olympics, but Michelle was gunning for gold in SLC.

I was referring to your post in which you said:

Michelle has ended up with silver twice

She won silver in Nagano and bronze in SLC.

[gratefulmkfan]

Yeah Ginny! Thanks for doing all that typing, and managing to sum up the way many of us feel. Even if my head told me to count Michelle out of the OGM hunt, which it hasn't, my heart wouldn't allow it! She has overcome so many obstacles in the past, she deserves to have her fans believe in her.

:FL :FL :FL

WE BELIEVE!

ETC: another darn typo (sigh)

[GardenKitty]

Well said Ginny, and despite Shizuka's somewhat disappointing results in Moscow, I certainly wouldn't count her (or any of the Japanese ladies) out either.

[MKGrace]

IceSo- Interesting analysis. I've seen Michelle come back strong after down times before, but it is a question mark whether or not she can do so yet again. I hope in the end her strategy of saving her body won't end up her undoing.

While I agree that a 4th place finish at Worlds is nothing to cheer about, I do think it was very good considering Michelle had absolutely no experience with COP and skated very average performances. It does seem if she can ratchet it up just a bit she has a great shot at a medal. She has to go all out to win gold.

[flow35]

GinnySmith

Great post. It is amazing that some people are already counting Michelle out. I think she has as much of a shot at gold as everybody else. Its all about the points. If she has programs that garner those points and she is comfortable with these programs I say Rock on Michelle :CK I hope for a great season of skating for you. I can not wait for the new season to start.:)

[kwanette]

Brilliant, Ginny....:)

[iloveskating]

It is amazing that some people are already counting Michelle outI don't see anyone here counting Michelle out. The original poster asked why people are counting MK in and SC out. To say MK is no longer at her peak, 4th place is not a great finish, other skaters have an equal or better chance as MK is NOT counting MK out. Every poster here is giving MK a chance, and most, a good chance. To say she is not the only one with a good chance is not counting her out!

[flow35]

iloveskating

Sorry I was not more clear. I know people here are not counting her out, I meant other places. We all know she has as good a chance as everyone else for gold. :)

[shawnie21]

Actually Ice So, I think going into next season as not the underdog is perfect for her. She dosen't have anything to lose and that's when she seems to do her best. I understand your point about peaking, but for me that's a diffrence between people who like to win and people who like to compete. There's not really one better than the other, but Michelle seems to have the 'Let's Compete!' attitude rather than the 'I wanna win!' one. Not that she dosen't want to win or anything, but some people get off more on the chance to win than the actual winning. With people like that, they have highs and lows in they're carrers, sparked by challenges. Think about the '04 Nationals, That one was supposed to be Sasha's. She had beaten Michelle at the first Cheesefest that year and won three (I think) Gp's that year as well as the short program (and even gotten a six for a flawed performance). That lp was the best Michelle had performed all year and for me hasn't skated that well since. Last year, I think she suffered from trying too much. She kept changing her program true, but after everything she did all people talked about was how it wasn't gonna be good enough for the COP. Maybe that's what she heard as well. Plus, she was skating to Bolero and there was a big deal made about that, so you're trying to get a program that's not only the masterpeice everyone expects and one that is COP forward and I think she might have seen these two as separate things because she might have been used to relying on the emotional impact of a program. I think she could do it because outside her fans (and not even all of them), alot of people think she can't.

As you can see, I can babble with the best of them! Sorry 'bout that!:b But on the topic, it's very hard to ask someone why is your opinon like this? Why can't it be like that? Peopel like what they like and think how they think and that's just life. Plus, I agree with whoever asked, 'Who said she's couldn't win?' I've even heard her own fans bring up the headcase stuff. Anything's possible.

[magicpixie]

inabauer, I think you know the answer to your question. This is the Michelle forum. I'm sure if you go to the Sasha forum you'll find people who believe that MK doesn't have a chance in hell of winning the Olympics and yet believe that Sasha will skate a clean LP at a major comp. That's fandom.

Here most support MK and believe in her. I believe MK can win the Olympics. I also believe that SC can skate a clean LP. That's just me.

[mixedmadness]

I believe MK has a great chance of winning the Olympic gold medal if she is smart, attacks, competes in the gpf, and has a good overall cop program. Like many have said, she finished 4th at worlds this year with some very mediocre skates. That is not too shabby. Irina was strong this year but who knows about next year. Anything can happen. I will not pick my favorites or who I think will win the Olympics but I think that as the season progresses the top contenders will come into play and it will be obvious who the strongest skaters are.

As for Sasha skating a clean program, it is completely plausible but she has only skated clean once in her life and when she gets nervous she tends to tense up and her jumps get a bit awkward. IMO, she never really has even skated clean. I mean when she landed those 7 triples at the end of the year cheesefest in 04 she has a wonky landing on her double toe after her triple flutz. I guess that is nitoicking but MK has had many perfect performances with no awkward moments. Sasha has not.

However, at this point I would give the edge to Sasha just because she seems to be more determined to win and Mk is a little too nonchalant for my liking this season. I hope the fighter that she was in the past reemerges and she stops thinking about things too much and skating so defensively.

I know this is kinda random, but I kind of get the impression that MK believes her fate at the Olympics is predetermined and her heart is not there. I think she wants to believe that she can achieve this dream the third time around but a big part of me believes that she believes that she will not win. However, I could be wrong. Maybe I am just looking into things too much.

[lavender]

<blockquote><strong><em>Quote:</em></strong><hr>With her lack of exposure to CoP, Michelle is definitely going into the season as the under-dog and I believe her non-fans have already written her off and are counting her out.<hr></blockquote>

Great post Ginny. Unfortunately not only non-fans have written her off.

[rubyred]

Wonderful post, GinnySmith, Shawnie, and others!!!

We MKFers believe. Actually I don't need reasons to believe in Michelle. Michelle is Michelle. That's all I need to believe in her.

[Sparks]

However, at this point I would give the edge to Sasha just because she seems to be more determined to win and Mk is a little too nonchalant for my liking this season. I hope the fighter that she was in the past reemerges and she stops thinking about things too much and skating so defensively.
I know this is kinda random, but I kind of get the impression that MK believes her fate at the Olympics is predetermined and her heart is not there. I think she wants to believe that she can achieve this dream the third time around but a big part of me believes that she believes that she will not win. However, I could be wrong. Maybe I am just looking into things too much.
Maybe you are...
If Michelle thought her fate was predetermined, why would she try at all? IMO, Michelle has always taken full responsibility for her skating...win or not.

I wish I had that special crystal ball that would tell me what Michelle is thinking and how the Olympics will turn out. :b

[Undaunted Courage]

However, at this point I would give the edge to Sasha just because she seems to be more determined to win and Mk is a little too nonchalant for my liking this season.

Please don't think I am attacking you, but your post kind of made me scratch my head. How do you know that MK is being "nonchalant" this season? The season hasn't even begun. In addition, nobody really knows what MK is up to. How can u assyme that she is being nonchalant.

know this is kinda random, but I kind of get the impression that MK believes her fate at the Olympics is predetermined and her heart is not there. I think she wants to believe that she can achieve this dream the third time around but a big part of me believes that she believes that she will not win. However, I could be wrong. Maybe I am just looking into things too much.

This is also a bit strange. You seems to be bummed out about what YOU think MICHELLE thinks. How do u know this? Can u read inside her head?

I really am trying not to judgemental. But it really confused me when people seem to think they know what Michelle is thinking, doing, etc. And then people complain about it.
Why is this?

[GinnySmith]

Sparks--

Me too. How easy it is for some to write off and diminish the accomplishments of one so, um, accomplished and ask, "what have you done lately?" versus asking the question of one who has never totally lived up to the hype and ask, "what exactly have you done to deserve the praise and hype?"

I just watched Spartacus from Nationals...twice...and am sitting her shaking my head remembering how many such performances of perfection we have seen from Michelle.

From the 1996 Worlds Romanza & Salome, and EOE exhibition, to the 1997 Worlds Taj.

To the 1998 Nationals Rach, and perfection unparalleled Lrya and one of the greatest Silver Medals ever one at then 1998 Olympics.

To the 1998 World Pro Am Debut of Arianne and the magical East of Eden..

To the against all odds 2000 Worlds The Red Violin (preceeded by an awesomely haunting 1999 Worlds Exhibition to the same music)

To the 2001 Nationals spell-binding EOE SP where Michelle garnered another seven 6.0s for presentation, matching her 1998 Nationals Rach performance.

To the 2001 Worlds SOTBS, another competition before which she had been written off by her critics.

To the 2002 Nationals which she won coachless. To the 2002 Olympic Exhibition that had the audience on its feet cheering her greatness for over a minute...

To the 2003 Nationals and Worlds, the season during which she was undefeated.

To the 2004 Nationals LP of Tosca---a performance that matched the emotional intensity of any of the above and had the audience in a complete frenzy through the interview of Nancy Kerrigan by Peter.

To the most incredible debut ever of a short program at the 2005 Nationals and her tying a 70 year old record of 9 Nationals titles in the era of triple-triples....

And she is only 25 years old......hmmmmmm.....note to self....

There will never be another Michelle Kwan. This is why I believe.

Edited to add:
P.S.

I want to extend a personal thanks from me to Michelle for skating all out at her practices at the 2002 Nationals, most notably her performance of Rach which garnered a standing ovation.

But add to that the 2003 Worlds on a Tuesday morning somewhere between 8 and 8:30 Am EST (5 AND 5:30 AM pst) after getting in late. There were not a lot of us there: 20 to 50 people at the most???

So Michelle skated 7 triple performance of Aranjuez. What can I say except, Michelle, my profound thanks!!!!

You, Michelle, are simply THE BEST!!!

:SE

[nymkfan51]

Michelle is "nonchalant" this season?
She started training for this season in MAY ... that's right, MAY! Geez Louise... how on earth do you come up with "nonchalant" from all that we've heard about her training thus far?
I'm sorry, but that statement boggles the mind.:rolleyes

Ginny .... GREAT, GREAT, GREAT post!!!
(and I remember that "special" Aranjuez performance quite well!) ;)

[Ice So]

but for me that's a diffrence between people who like to win and people who like to compete. There's not really one better than the other, but Michelle seems to have the 'Let's Compete!' attitude rather than the 'I wanna win!' one. Not that she dosen't want to win or anything, but some people get off more on the chance to win than the actual winning. With people like that, they have highs and lows in they're carrers, sparked by challenges. I don't really agree with that. Wanting so hard to win might not be enough, sure, but that allied to a fighting and competitive spirit definitely does make a difference. Alexei was always super competitive, super fighter, loved to win, win, win. And he's what, OGM, 4 time world champion, 3 time euro champion, among countless other achievements and records?

I just can't see how 4th is a good result, COP or not. Being out of the podium was what those who predicted gloom and doom for Michelle said. (I mean the realistic gloom and doom predictions, not silly theories from haters that she couldn't even be top 5 or something :p ). No matter the system, average performances by Michelle are good enough to win competitions, so I don't find it surprising that she would be at least in podium contention. Doing well, on the other hand, would mean she would be in gold contention... which she really wasn't.

I question her physical ability to do some of the things she was doing years ago. People keep saying she can hit this jump combination and that spin and that MITF before a jump and etc, because she's done it before... but that doesn't mean she can do it *now*. Maybe it's just as easy as that, she can't and programs are watered down to facilitate. And people expect her to do stuff because she's done them in the past... but maybe now she can't.

Sorry for the pessimism LOL, but that's my take. Maybe I'm wrong and the surprise it will make it sweeter ;)

[millenniummagicz]

Sasha seems to be making some gains on her consistency each sesaon
i think u are "right". Sasha at Major events

2000 US Nat: falls in the LP
2002 US NAt: touch down on salchow, two foot on lutz (alright, whoohoo)
2002 Olympics: fall on triple toe, two foot on lutz
2002 Worlds: not a clean LP, forgot which)
2003 US Nat: two foot on triple toe, Fall on triple toe, two foot triple salchow
2003 Worlds: Fall on triple toe, fall out on a spin
2004 US Nat: fall on triple toe
2004 Worlds: fall out on triple salchow, WILD landing on triple lutz
2005 US Nat: fall on triple lutz
2005 Worlds: way over on landing on triple flip (anythin else? cant remember too well).

Im not even counting on the fluff events, but the point is, I dont see the improvement in consistency that you are describing. And I dont think I need to point out what MK has done in the major events since 1993. gains on consistency each season.

MK is a fighter, and we believe that. SHe's coming back after each season, after all the critics nawing at her little flaws, some even personal attacks IMO. But she fights hard and we believe that. As for Sasha, a LOT OF US believed her to step it up and take the titles, but times after times, she proved to be disappointing. Even Peggy, who absolutely loves Sasha and wants her to win major titles has displayed disappointment in Sasha.

[olympic]

I'm just as quick to point out as all of you that Sasha seems to have trouble staying on her feet. But as a Sasha fan (as well as an MK fan) I was pleasantly surprised to see that, despite her horrenduous season last year, she fought through all her programs at 2005 Worlds and came away with the Silver medal. This was after coaching changes, injury, etc. I honestly thought based on her season, she was a goner and would be lucky to be in the final six. Good for her:D It should be a confidence builder. I think Nicks is good for her and glad she's staying put through the Oly season:D

[inabauer]

Frankly, Michelle's chance of winning the Olympics is no different than Sasha skating a clean program.


One could say Michelle has gone from silver to bronze to going into the Olympics in 4th place world standing and minimal season record for 3 years with potentially one season of COP at the most.


So people can say the same thing about Michelle and the Olympics "I'll believe it when I see it" just as they do about Sasha.

Cause people believe what they want to believe.

[olympic]

Ina Bauer,

But they'll shoo you away with "this is an MK board. We are fans and it's Ok for us to cast a critical eye on other skaters but not MK. Why don't you leave and go to Sashafans to talk about Sasha." :p

[shellyfan]

2006 is wide open.
2002 I felt was between Irina and Michelle with Sasha as a possible dark horse. But Sarah won . . .
2006 -- Michelle right now is not a favorite to win. The World's podium implies the favorites are:
Irina - her skating leaves me cold but I admire her hunger and competitiveness enormously and she seems to be the Judges favorite.
Sasha - as has been said in other ways - in a universe of infinite possibilities she might skate her cleanest and best programs in Torino which also since she is so COP friendly and savvy would mean she wins.
Carolina - Italy and Europe's great EU hope. Cinquenta will be looking to collect some chits. I think ISU judging is still so crooked that only obvious & incredibly superior skating by Michelle or horrendous flops by others will get her the gold or even on the podium. Carolina is a nice skater but no way did she belong on that Moscow podium.
Miki Fumie or Shizuka could peak -- they need to stay healthy and get great music and great choreography -- especially Miki who is probably the best athlete of all the international competitors.
Michelle - It's a business -- she has to make some money for the ISU during the Grand Prix, risk injury and fatigue by competing at the GPF, and come into Torino not caring about anything but skating her program the best she can.
I think Nagano was the only time Michelle has skated her best and not won. I'll never buy the myth of Nagano that Michelle "lost" because she held back. She lost because Tara skated her best, Tara skated last, Tara was younger, cuter and caucasian . . . all had to be true for Tara to win -- change any one of those factors and Michelle would be going for her third OGM in Torino. Michelle was the better skater in Nagano and had the better skate period exclamation point.
Unfortunately Michelle bought into the myth and tried to fix what was not broken in SLC and still nearly won.
Michelle can win but must be demonstrably and without doubt superior to everyone else --- and that is not totally within her control. With crooked judges and the COP system, I don't see Michelle coming out ahead in a close competition. She can win but as in Nagano the gold can still go elsewhere.

[Ice So]

Ok lets not have another Sasha vs Michelle war. They're both good skaters, they both have a chance at olympic gold. A pretty equal chance, along with 5 other skaters IMO.

Everyone has their favorite. My favorite is Michelle obviously. But that doesn't affect her chances, just because she's my favorite Nothing will be gained by trying to put down another skaters chances at gold, especially considering last olympics and someone who noone thought would win gold, did. Erm, just curious, but why did you type this in reply to my post? Because I didn't even mention other skaters besides Michelle...

That being said, if you don't like the way posters here respond, and Michelle isn't your favorite skater(considering this *is* a Michelle board) then you might enjoy posting somewhere else better. Negativity about Michelles chances, is not something worth discussing on a fanboard for MICHELLE. I don't go to a U2 concert and say "well, just so you know, they don't have a chance at having a good show tonight" to their fans. What good does that do?

There's no point in arguing against Michelle Fans on a Michelle board, because WE BELIEVE. If you don't, thats your problem. But don't try to bring down everyone elses positive thoughts. Not everyone here is going to be a huge fan of other skaters, mainly because in many of our eyes, no one compares to Michelle in figure skating. And probably never will.

Michelle is completely capable."If I don't like the way people respond to my posts"?? Where did I complain about people in my post??? And clearly there must be some point in stating an opinion because this is a discussion board. And if you didn't notice, there were indeed people who had no trouble at all with what I said and replied to my post and then I replied to them as well.

Did you even read what I post at all? :rolleyes It sure looks like you didn't.

[Nathan]

Not to be rude to you ina but I'm pretty sure your loyalties lie with Michelle Kwan which makes me wonder why you're posting on this forum.

I may have my doubters but one thins for sure, I have nothing but love and admiration for Michelle, and she is my favorite athelete.

It's cool that you love Sasha first but there's no need to come here to this forum to create post to bolster Sasha Cohen while trying to deride Michelle Kwan.

[Krista]

I just can't see how 4th is a good result, COP or not. Being out of the podium was what those who predicted gloom and doom for Michelle said. (I mean the realistic gloom and doom predictions, not silly theories from haters that she couldn't even be top 5 or something ). No matter the system, average performances by Michelle are good enough to win competitions, so I don't find it surprising that she would be at least in podium contention. Doing well, on the other hand, would mean she would be in gold contention... which she really wasn't.

I question her physical ability to do some of the things she was doing years ago. People keep saying she can hit this jump combination and that spin and that MITF before a jump and etc, because she's done it before... but that doesn't mean she can do it *now*. Maybe it's just as easy as that, she can't and programs are watered down to facilitate. And people expect her to do stuff because she's done them in the past... but maybe now she can't.

Ok lets not have another Sasha vs Michelle war. They're both good skaters, they both have a chance at olympic gold. A pretty equal chance, along with 5 other skaters IMO.

Everyone has their favorite. My favorite is Michelle obviously. But that doesn't affect her chances, just because she's my favorite :b Nothing will be gained by trying to put down another skaters chances at gold, especially considering last olympics and someone who noone thought would win gold, did.

I believe in Michelle and her abilities. I think she can win. She's the best skater ever in my eyes. But that doesn't change the fact that the judges may not see it the same way.

That being said, if you don't like the way posters here respond, and Michelle isn't your favorite skater(considering this *is* a Michelle board) then you might enjoy posting somewhere else better. Negativity about Michelles chances, is not something worth discussing on a fanboard for MICHELLE. I don't go to a U2 concert and say "well, just so you know, they don't have a chance at having a good show tonight" to their fans. What good does that do?

There's no point in arguing against Michelle Fans on a Michelle board, because WE BELIEVE. If you don't, thats your problem. But don't try to bring down everyone elses positive thoughts. Not everyone here is going to be a huge fan of other skaters, mainly because in many of our eyes, no one compares to Michelle in figure skating. And probably never will.

Michelle is completely capable.

[SGuntur]

Shellyfan, Great post!
Interesting and thought-provoking statement.
Unfortunately Michelle bought into the myth and tried to fix what was not broken in SLC and still nearly won

[inabauer]

I like Michelle, but I don't think she's the best.

[Eeyora]

Another great post by Ginny. The way I see it is there are many question marks regarding the next season.

[Krista]

apologies Ice So. That post wasn't only in response to your post. It was also a response to the people comparing Sasha and Michelle and who is more capable of winning.

But in response to your post... What is the point in being so pessimistic about things?

[taf]

Shelleyfan-Tara is younger yes but cuter? No way, Jose! I don't even think she is cute at all, much less cuter. She reminds me of those Olson twins. Must be a matter of taste.

edited to remove an adjective

[SGuntur]

ITA with you on that Taf! Off topic, but I cannot stand those self-important Olsen twins. They were cute in the first few episodes of Full House, but got on my nerves after that.

[shellyfan]

I agree, in many connotations of the word cute - if you mean pretty - than Michelle is far prettier than Tara . . . I'm of the opinion that in the eyes of the judges the tiny. petite, young caucasian girl had a "cute factor" the graceful, artistic, elegant, attractive and more mature Michelle did not have.
Using Merriam Webster's definition of cute I'll still give the 1998 "cute" edge to Tara noting I'm much fonder of cute puppy dogs than cute teenagers.

Merriam-Wester Online (http://www.m-w.com/cgi-bin/dictionary?book=Dictionary&va=cute&x=18&y=13):
One entry found for cute.
Main Entry: cute
Pronunciation: 'kyüt
Function: adjective
Inflected Form(s): cut·er; cut·est
Etymology: short for acute
1 a : clever or shrewd often in an underhanded manner b : IMPERTINENT, SMART-ALECKY <don't get cute with me>
2 : attractive or pretty especially in a dainty or delicate way
3 : obviously straining for effect
- cute·ly adverb
- cute·ness noun

[mr pru]

There is no question who I would rather look at!!

I even thought so before I became a big skating fan.

:SE

[TAF2984]

There are many reasons as to why I believe MK can win the Olympics. One of which is over the course of her career she has proven to be the best all around skater.

Another huge reason, obviously you can't make excuses for everything, but MK's mistakes and results for this season can be explained by more than just simply missing a jump. MK did not score as well or won worlds partly because it was her first time competing under the COP. I also believe all of the changes she made hurt her program choreographically and also threw off some of her jumps. Some of the placements of MK's jumps were very different from where they have been in the past and as we know changing things like that so drastically can have detrimental effects. Almost all of her mishaps there has more to do with things done before she even competed.

Nationals was fine overall. The cadence and rhythm of Bolero affected her timing, but overall still a good skate. She won Campbells and the last invitational, and she had boot problems at the other competition where she lost to Irina.

Now onto last season, MK probably should have arrived earlier at 2004 worlds, which caused her to be so uncomfortable with the ice in the QR. Her short was spectacular, and she was poorly evaluated. She only doubled one jump in the long, and she came in second on a 5/4 split with 5 triples to Arakawa's 7. I also think it would have been wise to plan 7 triples. If she performed another triple, I bet it would have given her the win in the long, and it may have helped her in the QR. She could have won there with the mistakes. A combination of poor judging in the short and not planning for 7 triples cost her at worlds.

She placed third at the following competition with a few shaky jumps, and quite frankly Arakawa and Cohen skated well and for once two top skaters happened to land all of their jumps at once besides MK. Also, just like worlds, the decision to not plan for 7 triples probably cost her second. She hit 5 of 6 triples.

So all in all, for MK it has been more of things off the ice that has affected her whether it was boot problems or some questionable strategic decisions. I think if MK meticulously plans for next season choreographically, technically, and competitively she can do much, much better and the experience of COP before majors should help a lot. These are things that really can be fixed. Some of them are kind of surprising. I definitely think some of these handicaps will be gone with more experience and because it's the Olympic season.

Now I personally believe Sasha has many issues to resolve. It amazes me how so many allow one competition (worlds) to sum up the entirety of last season instead of looking at the whole picture. Sasha really quite frankly wasn't that great at worlds anyways. It's just she was a little better than the others. She had mistakes in every single phase at worlds. In fact, Sasha had a major error in every single phase of competition this season including the exhibitions!

No one at worlds skated that differently from the past 5 years with the exception of MK, which means she is still capable of beating all of them. Sasha made errors in all phases, Irina was solid, but she had several errors too. Irina had a clean long in place of her usually clean short, and she had a typical skate in the QR. So for all the above reasons, I believe that it isn't close to being over for MK, and she without question has a shot at winning the Olympics. It truly is up to her especially with decisions regarding her preparation and others have their work cut out for them as well. It certainly makes for an interesting season!

[millenniummagicz]

judges just nailed her for her first time. Since there's no previous marks/records for MK under CoP, they felt free to give her whatever crap score they could under PCs. Sure Irina executed most of her biellemans and other elements well, but that was it. Choregraphy, skating skills, how is she superior in those fields is well beyond me.

They really oughta change CoP to PoC, for Pot of Crap.

[taf]

Nice analysis TAF2984.

millenniummagic-PoC-I love it!

[Krista]

PoC :lol

[lillyfly]

PoC :rollin

Some great posts and good thoughtful analysis.

Sasha, Sasha, Sasha...(heavy sigh):\ She is a lovely skater with a lot of potential. That is the dilemma that fans of hers have.

As for Michelle...I believe:D

[fkriesler]

inabauer

How can there be people on this board who believe Michelle can win the 2006 Olympics and yet not believe Sasha can skate a clean program?

Cohen hasn't skated a clean lp in major competition yet. Mk is a 2 times olympic medalists. In my book Cohen is not even worthy to be mentioned in the same breathe with Michelle

Sasha seems to be making some gains on her consistency each sesaon; the typical response regarding Sasha is "I'll believe it when I see it", yet the same people believe Michelle will win the Olympics, when she has already missed the gold on 2 previous attempts.

Mk had 2 attempts and made the podium twice. Cohen tried once and failed to make the podium. Unless Cohen wins gold in 2006, she will never even come close to MK's achievement.

[patsue]

It's the CoP era now--skaters no longer have to be "clean" to win, they just need to rack up those points!

[olympic]

Good Point patsue,

Since CoP is strictly about point values, and they are going to grade element by element kinda like in Gymnastics, maybe they should have a bigger penalty for a fall like in Gymnastics, thus discouraging "sloppy" programs (in theory at least!)

Wow fkriesler! Any mention of Sasha and you're like a bull looking at a red cape:b

[patsue]

Olympic--the difference between CoP and gymnastics scoring and skating is that in gymnastics the athlete is scored much harsher for flawed elements. You know right away when a mistake is made that it pretty much takes that competitor out of the running for gold. Plus, they start out with a base score and uses the 10.0 scoring. In skating, now, it only matters if you try to do an element, you get points for trying, whether it is incompetent or not. You're right in theory CoP should work, for me it doesn't. There is still too much room for cheating judges, and in my opinion, it will only get worse before it gets better.

[berthesghost]

"How can there be people on this board who believe Michelle can win the 2006 Olympics and yet not believe Sasha can skate a clean program? "

Because we here at MKF are like most people in the world. When you have revered pundants like Dick and Peggy saying the very same thing again and again on national TV, it's prety obvious that that's how most of the skating world feels, not just Kwan fans.

[kwanluv]

In 2001, Michelle won Worlds, she "should" have been the favorite leading into SLC, but at the 2001 goodwill games, Irina threw down her best Tosca performance of the entire season...and as a result, she was the one talked about all season as the one to beat in SLC, not Michelle.

I believe the person who will be the "favorite" in the eyes of the judges, media etc... will be the lady or ladies who win Campbell's and the Japan Invitational and then dominate the GP season this fall. Momentum going into Torino will be the key to who's the favorite, and who are the underdogs.

We shall see who it will be, it may just be one lady, it may be two or three. As opposed to previous Olympics, I believe this one will be the most wide open one we have seen in a very, very long time.

Any one of the following seven ladies have a good shot at Gold:

Michelle
Sasha
Irina
Fumie
Miki
Shizuka
Carolina

This could prove to be the most exciting Olympic season ever!

[berthesghost]

I remember GWG and the Irina talk afterwards.

Funny, I also remember Irina losing Euros to a sub par performence by Maria and Mk solidly winning nats with her best performance of Schez. I don't remember anyone calling Irina the clear favorite after that, in fact I destinctly remember the pundants spinning a US sweep (which almost happened - 1st, 3rd and 4th).

Then there was the GPF, which Irina won with many mistakes, which is still debated today. Well, "debated" because I rarely if ever see people mention it as "Irina so deserved her win".

I also remember Irina giving one of her best SP ever and some judges having her back in 3rd, and Mk giving not one of her best and winning the SP. I remember seeing the results of the Sp and saying outloud "Wow, they really want her to win.".

[MKGrace]

In my book Cohen is not even worthy to be mentioned in the same breathe with MichelleI'd say that's extreme to say the least. IMO Michelle is superior to Sasha in many respects, but Sasha has finished ahead of Michelle in the last 2 Worlds. Sasha is competitive with Michelle.I also remember Irina giving one of her best SP ever and some judges having her back in 3rd, and Mk giving not one of her best and winning the SP. I remember seeing the results of the Sp and saying outloud "Wow, they really want her to win."BGOI - What competition are you talking about?

[berthesghost]

SLC

[MKGrace]

I thought the same thing after the short. I felt the judges were really behind Michelle. I thought Irina should've won the short.

[nymkfan51]

I thought Michelle's 1st place in the SP was well deserved. I was actually surprised that for once the judges got it right.

[attyfan]

I know hindsight is 20/20, but Irina should have been in first after the SLC short program -- because Michelle usually does much better in the free skate when she has to come from behind!

[taf]

It is true that many time it helps Michelle to be the aggressor instead of the defender, but at SLC, I had Irina in 3rd after the SP. I thought it was the worst SP performance of the season for her. But then I would have had Sarah down in 5th or 6th, based on the SPs we got to see, so what do I know?

[mr pru]

Based on my personal conversations with you-you know plenty!

[GayMenLoveMK]

I think the very reason that endless comparative threads such as these are started are proof of these skaters talents, and their equality with one another.

If Sasha Cohen was Amber Corwin, no one would give a rats tail to praise her, or even more the criticize her.

The fact that every competition they enter, particuraly in the US they're considered the "headliners" and the two top competitors is enough to prove that they are indeed among the best of the world.

[kwanette]

taf, I agree with mr pru...You know plenty...Too bad that you're not a judge...

[TAF2984]

Sarah's placement in the short was the one that was blatantly off.

[EigthAv]

I had Hughes down for #3 after the SLC Olympic shorts.I thought Sarah and Sasha were about even,so I gave 3rd to my fave of the two.If she was blantantly over placed,who are all the ladies you think should have been between her and Cohen?

[Terri]

I like Sarah but I thought that 4th in the SP at SLC was a gift. She should have been 5th or 6th. That was a very tentative skate.

[lavender]

You guys are better than me because I would have had Sarah in about 8th place. Sarah was so tense and her jumps were way underrotated. One of her worst shorts. I didn't think that one judge that put her in 10th was far off the mark.

[TAF2984]

Lavendar, that's about where I would have had her! She cheated both her flutz and flip. She was slow. The footwork was simple and again slow. I also thought the Russian judge wasn't too far off.

[EigthAv]

The same Russian judge had Irina in 1st and Maria in 3rd.A Russian judge helped promote Lipinski to OGMist. She won the Russian and the French judges. I was just glad I wasn't one of the judges in either Olympics. It was more fun both times being able to kick back and enjoy it.

[moskva]

well, i just *knew* reading through these endless pages that somehow it would all end up being russia's fault. i guess i have psychic abilities i never knew i had. :-)))

as far as i can recall, out of a panel of nine judges, only the us and german judges had michelle in first, the rest - yes, including the russian judge - placed her second. but that doesn't mean the decision was driven by some kind of russian-inspired conspiracy. rn't people tired of beating the same dead horse over and over on every thread?

as for michelle's chances in turin, it's frankly marasmatic to count her out. she is still michelle, and despite what many on this board think, her very name has a certain cachet, a mystique, which many other skaters don't have. no matter how u might have the judges hate her, no judge is immune to authority, and when u have a living legend skating, especially one on the verge of retiring, she will garner the sympathy vote. it would be a mistake of epic proportions to assume that judges r drones devoid of human emotions and liable to be swayed by nothing but pre-programmed orders from the national federations.

so, michelle's still very much in the medal contention, if she was ever out of it. i m sure no elite skater worth that title is making the mistake of writing her off, least of all irina and cohen. no matter how much sasha pushers indulge in snapping at michelle fans' heels here, the fact remains that sasha views michelle as a force to be reckoned with, and i m sure vice versa. yes, neither is viewed as the winning ticket going into the olympic games, michelle due to her - and let's be honest here - sub par showing at this year's worlds, and sasha because of her now infamous inconsistency syndrome, but the two of them plus irina r pretty much the women to beat in turin, no matter what fans and pundits might claim.

a little disclaimer at the end. my post was meant to bring the level of intensity down a notch, not to douse the flame with gasoline. so, if i have roused some feathers, i offer my apologies in advance.

[skatesindreams]

moskva, thanks so much for your well-reasoned analysis.

It's good to see you posting here again!

[Krista]

good post moskva. I especially liked the "living legend" part :D makes me grin from ear to ear lol

[cestlavie000000]

Great post Moskva! I liked the living legend part!

[mkskatingfan]

I personally think that the gold medal is up for grabs. Yes of course there will be favorites to win it, but favorite don't always win. Look at Sarah Hughes and Tara Lipinski.

[lavender]

The same Russian judge had Irina in 1st and Maria in 3rd.A Russian judge helped promote Lipinski to OGMist.

Yeah and I would have not had a problem with that placing. So again I agree with the Russian judges placement of Sarah.

[bookworm1254]

:SP
What I've noticed in all these years is that Michelle does well when she's the underdog. In fact, I think she thrives on it. At the 2001 worlds she said she loved the previous year's worlds: "I was the hunter..."

There's less pressure on her - on anyone - being an underdog.

Michelle is definitely going into the season as the under-dog and I believe her non-fans have already written her off and are counting her out.

Mary, who is proud to share our Kween's initials.:D

[kuchana]

It's a mistake to count anyone out who has a chance of winning Torino and Michelle is definitely one of them along with the others mentioned. It's not given her history alone nor the fact that she's already been training hard early for this upcoming season. Soon, we shall be able to see the fruits of her labour and I for one am very excited and anticipating her programs. She's given me plenty of reasons in the past to be have hope and has more than fulfilled them just as I have this festering hope that she shall return with avengance and fire. She may be only 25 years old but...she's not an old lady by any means. True, she may not be as technically sound as others but does this really matter in the grand scheme of things? Especially considering that it isn't about only that but having the complete package?

As for Sasha, she does have a chance of skating clean. Granted, I'm waiting for it but she seems to have improved in the past 2 years despite her inconsistencies as she managed to pull off with 2 back to back silver medals at Worlds, which you cannot take that away from her nor the fact that she's constantly been in Michelle's shadow for quite some time. However, she is certainly a challenger to Michelle and I wouldn't brush her away.

I'm hoping that Michelle is going to come out with 2 kick butt programs and set a blazing path to Torino. She is not physically limited and just the fact that she's Michelle Kwan will resonate with people in the competitions, both fans and non-fans alike.