Which Ladies in Torino?

[berthesghost]

Russia = 3
Irina? Cupcake? Vika? Soldatova? Basova? other?

USA =3

Japan =3
Fumie? Shizuka? Miki? Yoshie? Yukina? Other? (Mao not eligalbe, too young)

Italy = 2
Caro? Silvia? Vanessa? Valentina?

Finland = 2
Poykio? Drei? Kettunin?

Ukrain = 2
Liashenko? Galina? Other?

Canada = 2
Joannie? Cynthia? Other?

[chipso1]

Russia:
Slutskaya, Sokolova, Volchkova

USA:
Cohen, Kwan, Meissner (though I want Liang!)

Japan:
Ando, Arakawa, Suguri

Italy:
Fontana, Kostner

Finland:
Drei, Poykio

Ukraine:
Liashenko, Maniachenko

Canada:
Rochette

Taking it a step further and predicting the top 10 (as of right now, in alphabetical order :b ):

Ando, Arakawa, Cohen, Kostner, Kwan, Meissner, Poykio, Rochette, Slutskaya, Sokolova

[Maria 19]

Canada has 2 entries, so I would say Rochette and Phaneuf

[berthesghost]

How does Canada have 2 Ladies? Joannie finished 11th and Cynthia 20th! www.isufs.org/results/wc2...T002RS.HTM (http://www.isufs.org/results/wc2005/CAT002RS.HTM)

[JaneC]

<blockquote><strong><em>Quote:</em></strong><hr>How does Canada have 2 Ladies? Joannie finished 11th and Cynthia 20th!<hr></blockquote>

I forgot what the exact rules are for qualifying but Canada does have 2 Oly berths b/c Phaneuf's placement was so far down that the rules allowed only Joannie's placement to count. I think the add-up-the-skaters-marks rule doesn't apply if one skater is too far behind. Joannie needed to finish better than 12th to ensure 2 spots, she got them with her 11th placement.

Jane

[Jarrett]

Because everyone who qualifies for the FS but places 16th or lower gets 16 points. So 16+11=27 (two spots).

Here is a link to the spots. Click here (http://www.isu.org/vsite/vfile/page/fileurl/0,11040,4844-164995-182213-87601-0-file,00.pdf)

[olympic]

Is Kimmie Meissner old enough for the Olys next year?

[attyfan]

I would think so; I think she was 15 before the '05 Worlds, but not before the July '04 cut off date. Is Emily Hughes age eligible for Olys? What about Bebe?

[Skatephile]

Yes, Meissner will be 16 this October (ditto Katy Taylor). Skaters have be at least 15 years old by July 1, 2005 in order to be old enough to compete at the 2006 Olympics/Worlds/4CC.

Liang turned 17 in March; Emily Hughes 16 this past January.

--Sylvia

[Vinluvskwan]

For the US:
1. Kwan or Cohen (interchangeable, as either one can win Nationals)
3. Emily Hughes (I think she has more CoP-adaptable spins, footwork, and jumps more consistently than Meissner. Kimmie goes for and seldom/erroneusly lands the 3x, plus many of her jumps, includ. her 3z/3t, were judged underrotated at Jr. Worlds.)

Forget about the medal predictions for now.

[Krista]

The only ones I'd definitely say are going to be there from the US, are Michelle and Sasha. Im still hoping Jenny has a breakthrough season and skates her best program ever, and goes to the olympics.

Irina and Sokolova are pretty much sure bets for Russia, and probably Volchkova.

Miki, Shizuka, and Fumie i'd say for Japan

Carolina and Sylvia for Italy

Joannie and Cynthia for Canada

Pretty much all the ones that have been named already :b

[berthesghost]

Thanks Jarrett. I did not know about the no more than 16 rule.

Now, to bother with another stupid question: how do they pick the 30 who go? Does everyone who finished below 30 at worlds automaticly not qualify (poor Michelle Cantu fans!)? And, if Finland and Ukrain each picked up a second spot, does that knock-off #s 29 and 30 (poor Flur Maxwell fans!)?

[Krista]

It would be great to see some lesser known skating countries get skaters in there so it might boost their skating programs :)

[berthesghost]

Ah, the ellusive 2nd page. :lol Thanks.

[Skatephile]

Read the ISU document (link Jarrett posted above):
www.isu.org/vsite/vfile/p...ile,00.pdf (http://www.isu.org/vsite/vfile/page/fileurl/0,11040,4844-164995-182213-87601-0-file,00.pdf)

The remaining open Olympics slots by country (6 ladies, 6 men, 4 pairs, 5 dance teams) will be determined by the results of the Vienna Cup competition in October for the countries that did not qualify skaters for Torino at 2005 Worlds.

For example, Sweden got the final Olympic ladies' spot determined at '05 Worlds when Lina Johansson placed 19th there. All the other ladies/countries that placed beyond 19th (Mexico, Luxembourg, etc.) now have the opportunity to send a lady to Vienna Cup to try and qualify their country for one of the remaining 6 Olympic slots.

--Sylvia

[iliasara]

Silvia's comeback hasn't been confirmed and Vanessa Giunchi quit skating a while ago.

[Krista]

www.bladesonice.com/mag/oldnews1.htm (http://www.bladesonice.com/mag/oldnews1.htm)

Silvia did confirm, according to this article.

[iliasara]

It hasn't been confirmed from the Italian Federation. Also there is an article from a reliable source, here: www.artonice.it/archivion...ontana.htm (http://www.artonice.it/archivionotizie/luglio_2005/fontana.htm)
This site is the most up-to-date and reliable source for Italian figure skating (more than the fed site itself which is 'not-so-often' updated :b ) as it often has interviews with italian coaches, officials, fed members, etc.

ETA: for those who don't understand italian, here's a quick translation of the article.

Silvia Fontana: so far no Olympics.

July 21, 2005 - A few days ago rumours spread about a possible comeback of Silvia Fontana for the 2006 Olympics.
We talked to a person close to Silvia and this was the response. Silvia is getting ready for 2 important shows (one is Bocelli's), that's why she started working on her triples again.
So there is no confirmation about her partecipation at the Olympics (partecipation which should be allowed by the Federation first)
We wish Silvia all the best, without denying, considering her amazing 10th place finish in SLC, we wouldn't dislike to see her again on the Olympic ice!

[Krista]

ahh, ok thanks :)

[millenniummagicz]

ok, digressin a bit, and not to be a pain or whatever, but who had a huge hype for Cynthia? (i knew she wasnt goin to live up to her hype..., or Rochette)... :b

I hope Angela can come back and take the 3rd spot to the Olympics.

[JaneC]

<blockquote><strong><em>Quote:</em></strong><hr>but who had a huge hype for Cynthia<hr></blockquote>

The Canadian media, all because she dethroned Jennifer Robinson and is a teenager. Granted, Cynthia did quite well in the 2004 Nationals and 4CC, but ever since her growth spurt this last season, she hasn't skated the same way. I much prefer Joannie Rochette.

Jane

[berthesghost]

I also think she is one of the inconsistant ones, or maybe pressure at big events gets to her.

After her big nats win there was a lot of flack on the web about her not going to senior worlds and Robinson going instead. This was the first I heard of her. Then when I saw her skate two mediocre and otherwise forgettable programs at junior worlds, I was shocked that this was what all the fuss was over.

Despite the growth spurt, her medals at SA and SC last season reignited the flames. Then of course she ended up 20th at senior worlds. Didn't she come in last at the GPF?

[candygirl559]

Russia:
Slutskaya, Sokolova, Volchkova

USA:
Kwan, Cohen, Hughes

Japan:
Ando, Suguri, Arakawa

Italy:
Kostner, Fontana

Finland:
Poykio, Kettunen

Ukraine:
Liashenko, Maniachenko

Canada:
Rochette

[olympic]

1. Russia- Slutskaya, Volchkova, Sokolova. I don't see any young upstarts in Russia right now to shake this up.
2. USA- Kwan, Cohen, 3rd is more open: Leaning toward Bebe or one of the Juniors (Meissner, Taylor, or Hughes). Kirk will be in an uphill battle, I have a hunch the USFSA is giving up on her. Just a hunch, though.
3. Japan- Arakawa, Suguri, probably Ando but maybe a healthy Ota. Is Mao Asada old enough to go?? If so, I see her on the team.
4. Italy- Kostner, who knows. If Fontana returns, probably her.
5. Finland- Poykio (looking good this last year), Drei (a little more consistent than Kettunen), but maybe Kettunen if she holds it together.
6. Ukraine- Liashenko and Maniachenko. No surprises here!
7. Canada- Rochette and Phaneuf. Leung only if Phaneuf completely melts down (a possibility).
8. Hungary- Sebestyen. 2d is probably Pavuk cuz she's a little more consistent than Poth, but Poth puts it together once in a while.
9. Croatia- Hegel. No one else.
10. Switzerland- Meier. No-brainer!
11. Germany- Probably Dytrt (BTW, I read where she's consulted with TT) but some upstart could sneak in like Constanza Paulinus....
12. Australia- Nod to the old-timer Carter. She was hot in 2005. Miriam Manzano only if Carter melts down (possible).
13. Sweden- Johansson. No one else.

Question. I assume the ISU only lists definite qualifiers. Will this no. increase to 30 (as in SLC 2002) once more qualify from Vienna Cup??? I assume so. Then, the other qulaifiers will be...

14. China ( I just see the state getting behind someone and getting a qualifier). They've got 2 or 3 ladies now, expanding their depth.
15. Luxembourg- Fleur Maxwell was getting hot press and heard good things about her last year.
16. S. Korea- Yu Na Kim. Korea will get a spot IF she's meets the age requirement. Does she? If not, no spot!
17. Romania- Roxana Luca if she's still skating....not sure.
18. France- They don't have a star right now, but should qualify someone.
19. Great Britain- Jenna McCorkell. She's been slowly improving and has a great chance to have a Brit at the Olys.

It's all subject to change though, cuz various European Nations have strict placement requirements at Euros for their respective ladies to be eligible (Personally, I think that sucks:rolleyes ). So you may not see someone who qualifies for the Olys due to a poor showing at Euros.

Whew! Exhausted.:b Feel free to comment.

[Vinluvskwan]

Women's:
For the 3rd spot, it will be very tough to decide. I have a strong hunch the USFSA will give it to Emily Hughes. They see the potential in her having beat Kimmie at '05 Jr. Worlds, and international judges did score her TES and PCS higher than Kimmie at the 2004 Jr. GPS. I predict Kimmie will come short on her triple axel, and Bebe may outskate her. Don't forget though that Kimmie is a stronger SP skater. As for Jenny Kirk, she may botch her 3 loop and/or 3z, which she had problems with at 4CC, US Nats, and both QR and FS at Worlds. Her low-level elements may also put Kimmie at a disadvantage.

[chipso1]

olympic:

To answer your questions, no, neither Kim or Asada will be age eligible for the Torino Olympic Games. However, I believe that Choi has a great opportunity to qualify if she can skate clean at Vienna. If not, then I agree that South Korea won't get a women's spot.


As for the 3rd US lady, I also agree that the USFS is giving up on Kirk. After two dismal showings at Worlds, I think that they have started to lose faith in her. Even the times that she has skated well this year (Marshalls Winter Cup, USFS Spring Challenge) she has still been placed below awful performances from Cohen and others.

I would love to see Liang go, since she's been competing in Sr. Nats since 2001 and still hasn't medaled or gone to worlds. She's my #1 pick for the third spot, but I have a feeling that a little politiking will be going on to give it to Meissner or Hughes.

[millenniummagicz]

i though Kimmie IS eligible for 2006 Olympics??

[chipso1]

"Kimmie" is age eligible; "Yu Na Kim" of South Korea is not.

[berthesghost]

I like Bebe, I've always liked Bebe, and I'd love to see her do well. However, I'm starting to get very "Stiegler" about her. One can only live off potential for so long. Bebe will be almost 18 come next nats. By that age, Jenny, Kimmie, Emily and a lot of others had at the very least a junior worlds medal. Bebe has nothing on her resume except injuries and almost wins. If the USFSA is really in a "giving up on" mood, I'm afraid that Bebe will be near the top of that list.

[EigthAv]

It seems to always come back to the "3rd spot".<!--EZCODE BR START--><!--EZCODE BR END-->Kirk is no longer in the running.Retired.Liang could have a big year.It could be Meissner. Little Hughes could give her family another Olympic thrill ride.My Texas fave,Katy Taylor could have an uprising.......I hope Rita doesn't blow her house away :eek ...........What about Amber Corwin? Amber is the veteran.<!--EZCODE BR START--><!--EZCODE BR END--><!--EZCODE BR START--><!--EZCODE BR END-->Berthe,don't look now,but Tiffany Stiegler could end up in the Italian Olympics.I think I read sometime back that her partner was on the verge of being cleared for possible Olympic duty.I'm hoping Tanith Belbin gets her citizenship because she and Ben Agosto are the USFSA dancers with a genuine shot at da gold.If she doesn't,it becomes a wide open race amongst other USFSA dance couples.It would be weird if after all those seasons of pairs Tiffany goes to the Olympics as a dancer.Jamie Silverstein is also back in action.

[mr pru]

Amber has as much of a chance as I do-and I've never even skated.

[vixen62025]

I'd love to see the third spot go to Bebe too, but I realize that may be an uphill battle for her. I wouldn't say that the USFSA has given up on her, though (she did get assigned to Skate America after all).

With CoP as the deciding factor at U.S. Nationals, I would not guarantee that Meissner is a shoo-in for that third spot. She may have the 3/3s (and potentially the 3A), but her spins and step sequences are still lacking. In this area I think Liang and Hughes could catch up her, as well as potentially scoring better in the PCS as well (where, based on last season, I would clearly put the order as Liang, Hughes, and then Meissner).

I highly doubt Amber will make the team, unless she pulls off a couple of miracle skates, starting at Cup of China.

[EigthAv]

Pru,get your glasses checked.Corwin nearly made the World team in 2004 and would probably have placed higher at 2004 Worlds than Kirk placed.She seems to be the USFSA's perrenial red headed stepchild.The USFSA and the network probably want a teen sensation for this illusive third spot.Before I acted rash,I'd think of Amber.

[berthesghost]

Why is everyone counting out Andrea Gardner?

[EigthAv]

And look out for 2005 US Junior Champion,Sandra Jean Rucker. Never ever under-estimate the raw power of a USFSA Lady! It is an olde and time honoured tradition.

[mr pru]

I'd feel very confident and comfortable in betting every dollar that I'll earn for the rest of my LIFE that Amber won't be in the top three USA skaters on the Olympic team for 2006 in Torino, Italy.

I don't care about what she's ALMOST done.

Sports history is full of stories about what certain athletes have almost done.

She has no chance, sorry.

[gratefulmkfan]

The thing about Amber is that she can't do a basic 3z/2t combo, which was the SP benchmark for years, and was expected in the LP as well. That's what held her back under the 6.0 system, although she perennially did her 3ta/3ta in the SP, she was not ranked highly.

In 2004, our judges were reading the rules for the NJS, learning what the international judges would be expecting, so they gave her credit for a pretty clean 3t/3t in the SP. What had been a detriment was now an asset. They had also seen her do 3l/3l in practice, and they expected to see it in the LP. She popped that, and although she went to 4CC and did ok, I think that was the end of USA support for Amber. I'm inclined to agree with mr pru on this one Mike, although I wouldn't mind being wrong. While I'm keeping my $$$ in my pocket, not on the table, I think mr pru is in slim to no danger of losing his future lifetime earnings. :b

[EigthAv]

Pru tempts me to bet him that Amber Corwin will make him eat his words.:lol I better keep my money in my wallet.<!--EZCODE BR START--><!--EZCODE BR END--><!--EZCODE BR START--><!--EZCODE BR END-->Alissa Czisny!!! Alissa baby just finished winning silver at the Ondrej Nepela Memorial 2005. She placed 2nd in shorts,1st in freeskates,over the Mighty Julia Sebestyen.Don't count her out! <!--EZCODE BR START--><!--EZCODE BR END--><!--EZCODE BR START--><!--EZCODE BR END-->I think we are in for a classic US Nats! 1998 was too cool and I think 2006 could top it.

[amielou]

Watching the rerun of Nats 05 really makes me doubt that Kimmie deserves to be on the Olympic team. Unless she makes a lot of improvements in presentation, she's just not ready for the big time. I can't see it. A lot of the others contending for that spot have much more solid skating skills--posture, technique, quality spins, positions, what Dick once called "economy of movement" in their upper bodies (not waving their arms around). A few positions Kimmie hit in her Nats LP just made me wince; there is much room for improvement in her posture and presentation. (And I know it's irrelevant, but someone tell her to put her legs together sitting in the kiss and cry, please!)

I would love to see Bebe get that third spot. She just has a spark about her skating! Katy and Alissa Cz both look stronger than Kimmie to me, too. It's just a matter of all of these three consistently hitting their technical skills.

But...I am not a fan of the big jumpers. I like choreography and artistry...hence my preference for Michelle.

[DCSkate]

I want Bebe to get the third U.S. ladies spot. Hopefully, she will do well enough at her Grand Prix assignments and Nationals to convince the usfsa to give her that spot.

[gratefulmkfan]

I have a feeling (based on years of fandom), that the 3 spots for the Olympics will be appointed to Michelle, Sasha and the other American lady who the ISU judges favored the most in the GPS. Our judges can make it look like they came in 1-2-3 at US Nationals, but I think all but 1 of the 3 spots will be predetermined. It wouldn't be the first time a team member was outskated by someone who placed lower. (See Angela and Nicole in 1998 - a travesty.) USA wanted to send 3 National Champs and 3 World Medalists, so the scores fell that way. My guess:

Michelle ('cause she skates well and earns it)
Sasha ('cause ISU judges like her alot)
Kimmie (but I hope it's Bebe) because they are well-received by ISU judges in the GPS this season.

I really can't imagine it happening any other way, but you never know. "Ice is slippery. People fall." Sasha (tm)

[EigthAv]

I disagree totally with the notion that the judges rigged 1998 Nats to favour Michelle,Tara and Nicole.After the shorts,they had it like this: 1.Kwan, 2.Bobek, 3.Kwiatkowski, 4.Lipinski. Proof that they were willing to place Tara off the podium if she didn't earn it on ice.I wasn't a Bobek fan.I wanted Nikodinov,Kwiatkowski,Corwin,Lyons,....Morgan Rowe.....just about anybody but Nicole.Bobek skated her butt off and earned her ticket to Nagano.<!--EZCODE BR START--><!--EZCODE BR END--><!--EZCODE BR START--><!--EZCODE BR END-->Yes,many of us do want Kwan and Cohen on that big O team because they bring home the bacon in big events.Otherwise,I want to see a good Nationals and let the ladies settle the podium issues in the rink.Let the commitee handle the issues if one or more podium members aren't fit for Olympic duty. If 37 yrs olde Stella Grovoski can come out of sectionals and beat em all at Nationals,give her the bloody medal.If 10 year olde Bonnie Bratface of the Hollywood FSC earns bronze,give her the medal.

[gratefulmkfan]

Mike, I think Michelle and Tara earned their trips to Oly's '98 by their Nationals' performances. I also think that Angela outskated Nicole in the LP, by a long shot. Even just by triple jump count. Nicole had a theatrical (show skating) performance, but not a technically sound one in the LP. Watch again! 2a/2t? Come on? This was '98, not '94, and only Oksana could get away with that as her combination. (Ukraine might as well be Russia, right?) Then again, we are all entitled to our own opinions, and that's as it should be :) .

I truly hope it doesn't go as I think it will. I would rather see the 3 best performances at Nationals make the Olympics Team, unless, of course, Michelle doesn't have her best skate. She should go anyway :lol No, I'm not prejudiced in her favor at all :) .

[mzheng]

I want to see a good Nationals and let the ladies settle the podium issues in the rink.Let the commitee handle the issues if one or more podium members aren't fit for Olympic duty. If 37 yrs olde Stella Grovoski can come out of sectionals and beat em all at Nationals,give her the bloody medal.If 10 year olde Bonnie Bratface of the Hollywood FSC earns bronze,give her the medal.

ITA. USFSA shall stop prop any skaters at Nationals. Let judges fair judging. Let commitee execute their rights more often......Now talking about commitee decition for 2nd and/or 3rd slot to Worlds or Olympics. Was it Kwan getting short handed at 1994?

[EigthAv]

MzHeng,the skating establishment wanted to do the "right thing" and bar Tonya from the Olympics,but she hadn't been convicted and was threatening to sue royaly,so they sent her.Nancy had a very legitimate medical bye.Had there been a 3rd spot,Kwan would have competed in the 1994 Olympics.I'm guessing CBS also influenced things because they obviously wanted a real life soap opera to jack up the ratings.

[tongueincheek]

Wanted to put up a note about the Torino Ice Gala held last Saturday, and since this thread has "Torino" in the title, I picked it. http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v53/Tongueincheek/Chickens/biggrin.gif Some videos of the Gala are posted here (http://p216.ezboard.com/fmichellekwanforumfrm20.showMessage?topicID=445.to pic), including Carolina and Irina, Buttle and Plushenko, and Fusar-Poli & Margaglio.