Who are Michelle's REAL apponents for the '00 World Title?

[Mousee17]

In my opinion, the '00 World Title will be Michelle's, however, in the back of my mind there are a few other skaters that could give her a small run for her money. What's your opinion? Here's the skaters that could MAYBE challenge Michelle: Irina Slutskaya Sarah Hughes Maria Butraskaya (Just because she won last year) Sasha Cohen (Isn't she darling and amazing?) I can't think of anymore right now, and I doubt there are any more. MK -- 2002 Olympic Gold

[mano]

Naomi Nari Nam to that list and Nicole Bobek shouldn't be counted out either. That's why Michelle should attack every program of hers with difficulty and artistry to keep everyone out of reach and keep her detractors mouths quiet.

[kwanette]

anything can happen...Tatiana, Anna Rechnio, who knows????

[skatingfan]

anythign is possible. I want to look at U.S. nats first. After watching Sarah Hughes' grand slam performance, I think she probably is more of a threat from the U.S. side than anyone. She has greatly improved in her artistry. did you guys see the free leg of the spiral. She still needs to improve on her posture. She flutzes, but sadly even olys champ flutz. She has the 3l/3l, and her spins are very good. You see her spin combination in grand slam. She holds her layback in position for a good 12 - 14 revs, and is that donut on a stick spin new this year. Sasha cohen for me is way down the list. She has beautiful position in her spins, but her spins are not anywhere near NNN's speed and center. MK has better center in her layback. Unfortunately Cohen was injured, so did not have a chance to see some of her more difficult jumps. But she is 15 now, she certainly has not been a jumping bean like Michelle, Tara or Sarah. MK, SH, and TL have their complete set of jumps by 13. Well of course SH and TL's triple lutzes are flutzes. I am also p*ss at ABC for not showing Nikodinov. I think if she puts more personality into her program, she should do very well.

[littleone4eva]

How can Sasha even be a challenger to Michelle? Isn't she a junior, so she can't be in Sr. competitions? Or is she going to be moving up...

[april]

but I'm still hoping for a great season for Michelle! I think MK's opponents for World 2000 are: Irina Slutskaya (esp. if she has 2 3/3s) Maria Butyrskaya (judges love her) Nicole Bobek also: Tatiana Malinina Viktoria Volchkova Julia Soldatova (judges like her too, don't know why) Sarah Hughes Anna Rechnio

[wonder]

ITA, Arpil. I think Irina is a bigger threat this year. She finished 2nd in Keri, didn't she? Sasha, as much as I like her, she is not ready yet. Maybe next year? But hey, as long as Michelle is really happy, I won't worry so much. She was so so happy in Keri. Because of cloud 9? ;)

[Polo1882]

At the National Level: I think the stiffest threat to Michelle Kwan regaining her National title is Nicole Bobek. I think the Grand Slam performance indicates to me that she has been training her triples more...I mean I haven't seen her land a triple flip correctly since '98 Nationals and a triple flip in combination...I don't even remember. In previous years, Nicole has looked disoriented this early in the season, she's never really prepared until later in the season. I'm concerned with her spins, however, esp. her layback spin free leg position. Naomi Nari Nam is a dark horse this year. After reading reports of her recent performances at Jr. Grand Prix, I think she cannot take this title simply because her triple jumps are not up to the challenge. She is struggling with landing the triple lutz *cleanly* as well as two-footing the loop (as we saw at '99 Nationals) and the salchow. Her performance at Nationals was all the more impressive because the ladies field last season was weak: when was the last time a skater won a silver medal landing only three clean triples (Naomi badly two-footed the loop and underrotated her salchow). I'd say she needs a little more seasoning as does her training partner Sasha Cohen. The only 13 year old who has a remote chance of winning is Sarah Hughes. After that 7th place finish last year at Worlds, she has exuded consistency on her triples (however, I read that she underrotates many of them...is this true?? they look fine to me). I also love the new softness and musicality, esp. of her short program to "Serenade" where she's supposed to be portraying a flower in bloom...a fitting metaphor. International Level: Maria Butyrskaya will definitely be a threat to Michelle's path to her third World title. She's heading in the right direction with her programs--her new Sarah Brighmant short program shows a vulnerability and softness in her skating which she has never displayed; she seems to have a better command of the ice now. I also noticed that her landings seemed smoother and less rigid in the knees when she lands the triples correctly. Remember Maria finished third at Keri Lotion in '98, too, and finished on the top step of the podium at the World Championships. And she admits that she doesn't skate her best until later in the season, so a lot can happen between now and April. Irina Slutskaya has come into her own as well. The awkward, mechanical teenager I saw at the '98 Olympics has transformed into an expressive and moving skater. This is good since the judges have always had a tendency to overmark her in the past--now she justifies this with her wonderful skating. Her lutz entrance is better, I remember that awful arm she used to have. And her layback is the best of the entire Russian ladies field. She is going to threaten Michelle at Worlds as well as Maria at Russian Nationals and Europeans. Other Ladies I Would Like To See Make the Podium: Tatyana Malinina--a technically solid skater; if she loses programs like "Aladdin" and skates programs like her exhibition "Piano on the Waves" or her short program "Fantasia" she is a contender. Anna Rechnio--has powerful, powerful triples with powerful, powerful skating. Beautiful style, has a tremendous amount of speed; she just needs to build consistency in competition and skate programs which showcase her strength and power (instead of sugary sweet "Sleeping Beauty"). She looks like a top three type of skater. Angela Nikodinov--She looks like a world class skater in every respect. She is probably the most technically perfect skater next to Michelle Kwan in every respect, her triples, her camel positions, her exquisite layback. If she builds excitement and tension in her skating, she can make waves...having Richard Callaghan as a coach isn't too shabby either.

[DianeO]

I definitely think Irina Slutskaya, Maria Butyrskaya, Anna Rechnio, possibly Soldatova, and Sarah Hughes. I think Sasha is not quite there yet. Does she have all her triples? Will she even be allowed to go to worlds if she qualifies? Sarah, I feel, will be a real contender for Nationals this year and definitely also for Worlds. Her improvements are amazing (despite the flutz) and I think she will continue to improve throught the season, making a strong bid for a world medal. If she skates cleanly, I think it is a definite possibility, given her seventh place finish last year. I think she is already better at 14 than Michelle was at that age. She is developing her own style and doesn't just come across as a perky little jumping bean type that so many other skaters are. I don't think she is a real *threat* to Michelle yet, but in a few more years, watch out! :)

[LuvMK]

The intriguing thing about sport is that you never know what is going to happen on a given day. That's part of the fun of analyzing and predicting. I really have to say, however, that from what I've seen of Nicole, I doubt that she has progressed enough to her full potential to pose any serious challenge to Michelle at this stage. If Nicole is fit and focussed, she possibly could challenge other contenders. I really like Sarah Hughes, and she's coming along very nicely. I hope she is not pushed up the ladder too quickly, like Tara. Hughes has a coltish, graceful quality and good technique, and she's improving all the time. But she's still finding her expressive style on the ice. If she's allowed to mature and grow at her own pace, she's going to be an exceptional skater. I love her long arms and legs. Someone mentioned about the judges seeming to love certain skaters (that's entirely true -- they especially love the Russians -- often Russians place or win on the reputation of Russians in figure skating). Traditionally, the Russians have always been better in dance and pairs, but over the last 10 years (in men's) and 5 years (in women's), that scenario has definitely changed. If you look at most of the major amateur (and even some professional championships), it has been the Russians and Michelle Kwan winning gold. Many of the skaters that have been mentioned as posing a challenge to Michelle, actually are not tremendous threats - most of them still have some way to go before reaching Michelle's stratosphere. Let's be realistic (especially since broadcasters tend not to point this out very often) -- the fact is that the majority of women (young ladies) in figure skating today have all learned from watching Michelle Kwan. By watching Michelle's perfect performances at Nationals in '98, Tara Lipinski improved her own artistry, copped a few of Michelle's unique arm movements (choreography from Lyra Angelica), and ended up winning the Gold medal at the Olympics, as a result. Butryskaya has her own unique and womanly style on the ice, but I think she has improved her jumping, her consistency and her overall performance packaging, as a result of knowing she has to compete against Michelle Kwan's very high standards of excellence. Another skater who has definitely improved her style, is Irina Slutskaya (she could always jump), but her programs were not well-choreographed, she had no position, no musicality (just a lot of energy and flinging herself across the ice). I'll bet anything that Slutskaya has definitely watched Michelle and learned from the way Michelle carries herself on the ice, and from the way Michelle's programs are put together. I'm sure Slutskaya realized that she needed to concentrate on practicing ballet and working hard on her expressiveness, choreography and costuming. It has taken awhile, but Slutskaya is really looking very good. I think she has a wonderful personality too, and I hope she continues to do well. The judges always did love her. If she keeps up what she accomplished at the Keri competition, she'll deserve high marks. The truth is that Michelle was sick during World's in '99, and Butryskaya was able to overcome her nerves and skate to her ability, and win. If Michelle had been well and skating her usual flawless routines, Butryskaya would have won silver. If Michelle had been the Russian figure skating pair (B & S), she would have likely been placed in third after her mistakes in the short, not fourth. B&S have often had mistakes, and have not been dropped lower than third over the past couple of years. Because Michelle is normally so flawless, she tends to judged very harshly when she makes mistakes (and there is some prejudice and politics that occurs as well -- usual for figure skating). I've mentioned this before -- it bears repeating. When the judges bestowed the silver Olympic medal upon Michelle Kwan, the value of the silver was enhanced.

[Karin]

I like Sasha a lot!!!...but a threat 4 2000 World title??? Huh??? Not even close!!!...may be later... I think the real "threats" in order... Irina Fumie Maria Sarah...

[LYRA1]

I didn't know Sasha Cohen could compete in Worlds because she is 14. Will someone be kind enough to explain the age rule. I can never seem to get it right.

[Jenny]

I don't fully understand it all, but here's what I think to be true...... Even though Sasha is competing (or was supposed to compete before her injury) in the Junior Grand Prix this season, she passed her senior test and will be skating as a senior at U.S. Nationals. She will be 15 later this month, so if she makes the U.S. podium there's nothing keeping her off the world team. Naomi on the other hand is still 14, so she has to medal at Junior Worlds in order to bypass the age rule (15) for senior Worlds (the reason Sarah, but not Naomi, was allowed to go last year). I've heard though that since Junior Worlds is very close to Senior Worlds this year, this might cause a problem if the U.S. has to name their World team before Junior Worlds have taken place. I'm not sure what the date is that the USFSA has to name their team, or if there's some way to get around that deadline. Hope that helps! Best thing to remember is that a skater can be a senior on the *national* level (determined by *ability*) but still compete as a junior on the *international* level (determined by *age*).

[DianeO]

Maybe its just me, but if the National tests are based on ability, I think they should make the Senior test a little harder. I find it kind of silly that skaters can compete on the senior level without having all the (triple) jumps. I think that is why we are seeing younger and younger skaters competing each year. Because, even though all the triple jumps may not be necessary to medal at Nationals (Naomi got the silver without a 3 lutz), skaters competing at the World Championships at the Senior level *should* have all the triple jumps and *need* them to compete with the best skaters in the World.

[TripleLutz]

To challenge for just a medal...NOT just Michelle: -Naomi Nari Nam (charm and charismatic skating; needs the jumps to really settle for a medal) -Nicole Bobek (desperately needs the triples to come close to challenging Kwan) -Angela Nikodinov (outside shot at a medal) -Sarah Hughes (keeps it together, she might medal) -Amber Corwin (if she keeps it together, she may medal, esp. if there are mistakes that are made by others) World challengers: -Maria Butyrskaya RUS (must keep it all together to challenge) -Irina Slutskaya RUS (fresh, triple jumps are all there, choreographically much more pleasing than ever before) -Laetitia Hubert FRA (if she can keep it together, she might medal) -Tanja Szewczenko GER (definitely a contender if she can hold all the triples together) -Anna Rechnio POL (quietly moving up in rankings, she may surprise those who have written her off with her spring, her amazing power and HUGE jumping, along with her great sense of style and her quiet grace) -Tatijana Malinina UZB (already has the moves, just needs a better program choreographically and artistically)

[Karin]

I agree with you on Sarah's 14 yrs. compared to MK at 14...though I think it is also that MK pioneered this young skater thing!!!... There was NO other former 13 yr. old for MK to follow like SH has MK to follow regarding the "young matter"!!! I also think that Sarah is "better" at 14 than MK was...it's because MK was SO cute and adorable!!! Sarah on the other hand, IMO...is not "cute". Sarah looks more mature than her age... Sarah is definitely a contender for Nationals...but I don't know about worlds...may be a 3rd or 4th... ISU judging is SO weird!!!... In a yr. or too!!! But I also think that Sasha is "better" than Sarah...though I like Sarah more!!! And no...I don't think she is a threat YET!!!... ABOUT the Senior's test!!! Diane...U nailed it!!! They should make it harder!!! How can the US silver medallist not have a 3lutz at the time of winning it???... LOL!!! I am so excited talking about all these young skaters who are so wonderful!!! But on the other hand, I think it has gotten out of hand... I don't agree with the age rule...but there should definitely be a higher standard for passing seniors... Also... Though I am excited!!!...I am so nervous & worried!!! I know MK can keep up!!!...I hope the judges will keep on appreciating MK!!!... at least until after 2002 Olympics!!! KWAN go 4 the GOLD in 2002!!!

[Calum]

If Sasha won't turn 15 until later this month, then I don't think she'll meet the age requirement for Senior Worlds in 2000. I think the age requirement is age 15 by the previous July 1st. If this is correct, then the only way she can qualify is to medal at Junior Worlds two weeks before Senior Worlds, the same as Naomi. (Sarah also won't meet the age requirement, but I understand that under a special exception she'll automatically qualify because she competed in Senior Worlds last year.)

[Karin]

Some of these ISU rules are so annoying!!!... if a "kid" has the stuff...then let her go!!! Gosh!!!... but then again...as I said above...like Diane...I think the senior test should be upped!!!...

[skatingfan]

Calum, iTA about the age rule. BTW, even Lisa Kwon pass the senior test. So at nats 2000, we will have at least two 15 y/o Sasha Cohen, Susan Ng (now if Susan makes the podium she does not have to qualify senior world thru junior world), two 14 y/o NNN, and Sarah, and a 13 y/o Lisa Kwon. Since senior world is delayed one week to be held in France, it will be easier for NNN, SH and SC.

[Polo1882]

I agree with all of your reasoning that a skater who wants to become a senior should have all the triples down. Skaters like Tara Lipinski or Sarah Hughes have no problem with that. But, other juniors take more time to mature and master all of the triples. Not everyone can do the jumps in a snap: if we do this, we'll have juniors who are better than the current senior skaters plus by the time they make it to Nationals, they'll be approaching their twenties. In a way, figures took care of this--they made sure that you knew how to *skate*, important details like edging and line, all of which contribute to the overall skating package. Anyways, I'm not saying we should bring figures back, I just think that skaters who can pass the current tests should be allowed to skate based on their ability. Knowing that they're senior skaters should motivate them to work on their elements to bring them up to level. Just my opinion, of course.

[Jenny]

Oops..... you are right, Calum. I completely blanked on that "previous July 1" part! So Sasha and Naomi are in the same boat... but Sarah is exempt because she went last year and is competing on the senior circuit this year? It's all so confusing! Also, does anyone know how the Junior World team is decided? Is it based at all on the JGP? Since Sasha had to miss her first assignment, I wonder how that will affect her chances of going to Junior Worlds. Sasha, Naomi, Lisa Kwon, Sara Wheat, Deanna Stellato, and Jenny Kirk (and others I'm probably forgetting) are probably all hoping to go (unless some of them aren't even old enough for junior worlds.... i'm not sure of that requirement). Hmmm....this should probably be in "Skating Chat" -- I'm breaking my own rules. ;-)

[sw10025a]

I don't think DianeO's proposal that the senior test requirement be changed to require all triple jumps would work at all. I agree maybe it should be made more difficult, but requiring seniors to have all triples would eliminate much of the senior field at the national level -- Karen Kwan could not have competed, for example. Sarah Hughes might not be able to compete because she flutzes instead of lutzes. Nicole Bobek even might be out since she is usually very unsuccessful with her flips and loops, and she's repeatedly won medals at nationals with watered down programs missing some of the triples. The vast majority of the senior ladies and a good portion of even the world championship competitors don't have a full repertoire of triple jumps. Not the top seven or eight, mind you, but a good portion. And one has to remember that the purpose of the senior test is to set a minimum standard -- emphasis on the word minimum -- for the field of skaters. Not to ensure that they are all competitive for the top five or six placement spots. And I agree with the poster that said that the effect of this change would be a lot of crowding among the junior ranks, with some good skaters being kept out of seniors. These skaters need some exposure to better skaters and seniors competition so that they are more seasoned and experienced if and when they have mastered the last triple jump and are more technically competitive. Perhaps the solution might be that instead of focusing on the jumps, the seniors test should be made more difficult in its requirements for spins, footwork, etc. to encourage more well-rounded skaters. That being said, I think the majority of us believe that if Michelle skates decently, she'll probably be a 3 time world champion. If she skates really well, no one can touch her. If she doesn't, well, that leaves the door open for Irina Slutskaya, Maria Butyrskaya, Vanessa Gusmeroli (perhaps) and one or two others. Personally, if I were Maria, I'd be very, very worried about Irina. She's a much better jumper, she's improved her presentation, line and positions a lot, she's obviously been working hard, and if she can keep up her consistency, and Maria keeps performing at the level she usually does until the end of the season, Irina will have momentum and Maria will not. And she's a lot younger than Maria, still in the phase where she's growing and developing her skating, working toward maximizing her potential, and that counts for a lot.

[LYRA1]

Thanks, Jen for explaining the whole age thing. The judges have been really giving Sasha some low scores this season. Is it because of her age? If so, I wonder why they didn't do Naomi the same way and she didn't have all the triples that Sasha has. This can be a really confusing sport sometimes. But I love it anyways because of Michelle. Michelle for 20002 Gold!

[sw10025a]

As far as I know, Sasha has only competed in the Keri Lotion pro-am this season. My understanding was that she is recovering from a bad foot injury so she is skipping her first Grand Prix event while she continues to heal. Lyra1, I went back and looked at my tape of Sasha's Keri performance, and I think I can provide you with some plausible explanations for the difference in the marks between Sasha's Keri performance and Naomi's nationals performance. Regarding Naomi, she was being judged by U.S. judges, not international judges, and I have noticed a pattern of judging at nationals that doesn't happen as often at international events: a skater with a technically less difficult program who skates cleanly and has good presentation skills gets better marks than skaters with more technical difficulty but who either make errors or don't have as much audience rapport. Lisa Erwin became a national silver medallist years ago on the strength of a beautiful but less demanding program. Nicole Bobek has made a career out of medalling at nationals by watering down her long programs enough to decrease her chances of falling and maximize her presentation scores. Tonia Kwietkowski skated a much more difficult and demanding program than Bobek at 98 nationals, and we know who ended up making the soup can predictions come true. Regarding Sasha, I think bias against a junior skater, much less one who looks so much younger than she really is, may have played a part in it, and certainly, there could be a judicial backlash against little jumping beans, but I think Mr. Button was wrong and there were some logical explanations for her lower marks. First, she skated first, and the first skater almost never gets the marks they might have gotten had they competed later. Second, she only did a 2axel, 2 3sals and 1 3toe loop, the easiest of the jumps, because of her injury, whereas Naomi at least tried a flip and a loop. Third, although she seems to have a great deal of potential, a real sense of style, good presentation skills, etc., her skating was very slow, her spins were also very slow, and her footwork sequences looked very easy even to my untrained eye. Does anybody know what Naomi's marks were for her most recent Grand Prix competition in Montreal? I suspect they were more in line with Sasha's marks.

[LYRA1]

I am so glad their are people like you who can breakdown the technical elements. The only jumb I know for sure is the Triple Lutz because of the bended knee entrance. I hope the National judges don't get too generous with their marks for skaters who are lacking the technical/artistic elements for Michelle's sake. I can't wait until this season really begins.

[skatingfan]

I don't know whether that is necessarily true U.S. judges place more emphasis on presentation than int judges. I think olys 94 is an example, too bad I did not tape the sp. Didn't Baiul only completed like 3 - 4 triples with no combination in her lp, and her degree of difficulties in between to me was less than Nancy's. I don't know what Lulu placed after the sp, she definitely out jumped everyone in her lp. But of course if she did not placed top 3 after sp destiny was not in her own hands. Then I definitely think Yuka skated the best lp. Her jumps were almost as good and difficult as Lulu's definitely better than Oksana and Nancy. And talk about speed and foot work. I really don't know what judges think. But one can always assume if a skater wants to win s/he better prepare a program and also perform it so that in every aspect of the skating s/he is convincingly the winner. For Mk, how come when she was 13 and 14 and could jump and jump, they preferred presentation. When she had presentatiion, they prefer jumps, and some flawed jumps from the other skater was overlooked, and yes speed is part of presentation, I know. Again, by no means I am starting who skated better in 2/98. I hope Michelle will win convincingly whenever she steps on the ice.

[mkbutch]

I still think that Michelle is Michelle's only REAL opponent. When she is focused and happy, when she is so full of her joy in skating and the love of the whole thing, and confident in her own skills, I don't think there is another skater who can beat her. That only leaves about 2,000 imponderables. mkDragon